Note - I got in late last night from the game and so parts of this post may be a little more rough than per usual. I wanted to get it up regardless and hope you don’t mind the jumbled parts. As always feel free to drop a comment or rant if you like, down below in the comments section or of course you can email me at john.betzler@mnsu.edu.
Last night featured a match-up that on the surface looked to be fairly equal. Kevin Brown is being paid 15 million dollars and has plenty of playoff experience under his belt, including a World Series ring. Carlos Silva started 1 game before this year, is dirt cheap for the team to keep around and was making his first ever playoff appearance. Looking at it another way, Kevin Brown is an aging overpaid veteran, who not only has not been very good this year but also is a cancer in his own clubhouse and was immature enough to break his own hand less then a month ago. Carlos Silva, on the other hand, showed great resiliency in nailing down the third starter spot with an excellent September while pitching over 200 innings for the first time in his career. For some reason I liked our chances going into the game. For the first time I was able to see a playoff game in person; my seats were in left field row 33. Unfortunately the game did not go according to plan.
The first inning started off great as Silva didn’t give up a run and Jacque Jones homered to give the Twins an early lead. Then it all began to unravel. It started with a few innocent 2-out hits and ended with 3 runs on the board and Kyle Lohse warming up in the bullpen. The Twins were unable to shut the door on the Yankees rally as their hits landed just in front or out of reach of the fielders, all with two outs. To make things worse, much of the scoring came from the bottom of the Yankees order with both Miguel Cairo and Kenny Loften delivering big hits. These are the guys the Twins need to get out almost every time up.
As the Yankees scored they simultaneously were able to take the 54,000 fans out of the game. The crowd was not a factor until it was already to late in the 9th inning. 54,000 people is a lot of people to keep quiet for so long. The Dome was not sold out but it was pretty near capacity and they did lift the curtain. After the Yankees scored their 3 in the second the crowd seemed to already sense the inevitable. They did not stand or get overly loud even when the Twins had a chance to close the gap during a couple of missed scoring opportunities in the innings that followed. That can’t happen today if the Twins want to really show the Yankees what "Dome field" advantage is. When the crowd finally got back into it again in the 9th , the amount of noise was very high considering that a quarter of the crowd had already left early to get to their cars and beat traffic. Many people held up signs stating various derogatory Yankees statements. If we really want to show the Yankees that they suck, the Dome needs to be the loudest place on earth even if they are a couple of runs in the lead. Right now the Twins have lost 4 in a row in a place that they used to be thought of as a unbeatable at in the postseason.
The Twins had opportunities to score off Kevin Brown and failed to get the big hit they needed. While everything went right for the Yankees, the Twins were able to hit some balls hard right at people and Brown was able to work his way out of every jam. It’s hard to know what to blame on the Twins and what is luck's fault. The Twins are due some luck coming their way and that is why it is hard to properly judge Carlos Silva based on this outing. What needs to change if the Twins want to win today is that both Shannon Stewart and Justin Morneau absolutely have to be a bigger part of the offense. Stewart has struggled the past 2 games and Morneau has really not contributed much at all. The team can’t sit back and rely on Henry Blanco to drive in runs. Shannon Stewart sets the tone for the offense and when he is going, the rest of the offense is too. Morneau makes things happen both with his presence and his swing. It is important that the Twins get an early lead to put the pressure back on the Yankees, especially with Johan Santana going on short rest.
Santana will be pitching on short rest today in an elimination game. Together with Brad Radke he still gives the Twins a shot in this series. Going in, the Twins knew they had to win all of Santana’s starts and most of Radke’s. Radke has already lost and should be ready to go out and pitch much better on Sunday. There is a lot of pressure being placed on Santana and he has yet to prove he can deliver in an elimination game.
The team must have been worried about what they would get out of Carlos Silva. It was by no means a pretty start but it wasn’t terrible either. He did what he needed to do and had a couple of bad breaks. They probably left him in a little to long when he allowed the homer to Bernie Williams in the 6th but up until then he had been cruising since overcoming the 2nd inning.
Javier Vasquez is on the mound today for the Yankees which adds to the mismatch. Vasquez has really struggled coming into the playoffs and is only starting because Orlando Hernandez can’t. The Twins could not take advantage against Brown but they need to against Vasquez. Scoring runs off of him neutralizes the bullpen. They won't be able to bring Mariano Rivera in to shrink the game to 7 innings if they are already behind a couple of runs.
The Twins won a small battle by forcing the Yankees to bring Rivera into last night’s affair. Their little rally in the 9th not only excited the fans, it gave them much-needed momentum going into today’s game. From the stands Rivera did not look as un-hittable as he used to. He missed out on a day of rest which can only help the Twins. By bringing in Rivera, Torre showed that the Twins do scare him. I’m willing to bet Rivera has never given up 6 runs in an inning in his entire career. The Yankees were still 3 runs away from making it a save situation and yet he is was brought in to slam the door shut on the Yankees victory so that there was no chance it got away. The Yankees do not have a deep bullpen beyond Rivera and perhaps “Flash Gordon,” the Twins have just been unable to take advantage to this point. And the Yankees together with their “mystique” continue to get lucky as a result.
Late in the game last night both Torii Hunter and Corey Koskie were thrown out trying to do too much on the base paths. They were not smart base running plays because when a team is 6 runs down it needs base runners more then anything. Torii has been this teams igniter throughout these playoffs and was definitely trying to make things happen. Instead he should have stayed within himself and continued to put pressure on the Yankees. When you are giving away outs to a team you are helping them out more then you would have hurt them. Then again, if Torii was safe the dugout would have been fired up and the rally may have started 2 innings earlier with enough time for the Twins to come back. As for Koskie’s base running, I cannot defend it, it made no sense to me at all from the stands. He took off running, was almost safe but was definitely trying to stretch out a single.
The Yankees were able to get all of their run scoring out of the way yesterday and should be ready to be shut down by Santana today. The Twins still have a great shot at winning this series. If you think about it, all they have to do is win 2 in a row, something they did repeatedly during the regular season. They have their two aces on the mound for both of those games and so you have to like their chances. There are 3 keys for the Twins during the game this afternoon:
1. They must score early and put get the Yankees on their own heels.
2. Santana cannot feel the after affects of short rest and needs to give the team 6-7 great innings.
3. The crowd needs to be in the game, cheering and giving the Yankees hell.
I will of course be at the game once again and this time I am taking Ryan with me. You can’t see everything as clear as you would like from so far up in left but it is always a great feeling to be surrounded by so many Twins fans. I fully expect to lose my voice today and hope it is for a good reason.
John
john.betzler@mnsu.edu
Saturday, October 09, 2004
Friday, October 08, 2004
It Don’t Mean a Thing if it Ain’t Got That Swing
We have come to it at last. Game 3. The “swing” game. Since baseball expanded it’s postseason to three rounds in 1995, 36 first-round Division Series have been played. Of those 36 series, 14 saw the teams split the first two games. However, only three times of the 14 (21%) has a team lost Game 3 yet come back to take Games 4 and 5 and win the series. One of those times, we all remember, was the 2002 ALDS matchup between the Twins and Athletics.
So while tonight’s game is not a do-or-die situation for the Twins, it’s about as close as it gets. That’s a ton of pressure for a 25 year-old with absolutely no postseason experience. Let’s hope Carlos “The Jackal” is up to the task.
Over the past 24 hours, I have recovered somewhat from yesterday’s stunning loss, enough to finally think clearly about the future ahead. There is no doubt that tonight’s game is extremely important for both teams. If the Twins lose, they will be hard pressed to win twice (once at The Stadium), especially given the way Brad Radke pitched Wednesday. If the Yankees lose, they will be in the most unenviable of positions: they must beat Johan Santana on the road in an elimination game. Both teams realize the importance of tonight’s contest, and both will do whatever it takes to win.
The Pitching Matchup
In addition to the intrigue created by the series’ first two games, tonight’s battle will also feature the most interesting pitching matchups of the series. Carlos Silva (14-8, 4.21 ERA in 33 starts) will go up against “Next Great Champ” hopeful Kevin Brown (10-6, 4.09 ERA in 22 starts).
Brown, who has thrown only 5 2/3 innings over the past five weeks since losing that fight with a locker room wall, is the wild card in this game. It is possible that he’ll be effective enough to give the Yankees a fighting chance. The Twins are a relatively undisciplined offensive team, and if Brown’s sinker is on, the Twins will probably be unable to lay off. Notice, however, the added emphasis placed on the word “if”. Even before his scatter-brained injury, Kevin Brown was not the Kevin Brown of old. He started only two games in June and none in July. In August, he was mediocre, posting a 4.05 ERA while allowing 11 walks and 33 hits in 33 1/3 innings. And who could forget his fiasco against the Red Sox a couple weeks ago? The Twins can get to Kevin Brown, and if they can knock him out early, things will to look even better. With Tanyon Sturtze likely unavailable, tonight’s Yankee long reliever is none other than… Esteban Loaiza. Let the feeding frenzy begin.
Of course, none of this will matter if Silva cannot be even mildly effective against the New York All-Stars. The Twins aren’t going to outslug the Yankees anytime soon, so Silva is going to have to expand upon his September success and keep the Bombers at least somewhat in check. There can be no five-inning, seven earned run performances this time out. But like I said the other day, I think there is a pretty good chance that Carlos will go out there and do his job tonight. Call it a hunch, but I’ve got a good feeling about this one. If Silva can go five or six innings and allow three runs or less, there’s a good chance the Twins might just steal this one.
Managerial Mishaps
Wednesday’s game was not Ron Gardenhire’s finest moment, and I think (and hope) that he would be the first to admit it. He obviously screwed up big time by leaving Nathan out there for the 12th, but there were at least two other mistakes that were just as costly.
1. Not pinch-hitting Lew Ford for Jason Kubel in the 8th with men on second and third with one out.
This was by far the biggest at-bat of the game, yet Gardenhire chose to stick with the 22 year-old rookie, he of the 70 major league plate appearances. To make matters worse, Kubel had only faced Rivera twice in his short major league career (he was 0-1 with a walk). Also, everyone knows that a lefthanded hitter has absolutely no advantage against Rivera’s cutter, so that excuse isn’t valid either. Worried about not having an emergency outfielder? What about Michael Cuddyer? There was simply no good reason for Gardy to leave his leading hitter on the bench in that situation, and the non-decision possibly cost the Twins the game.
2. There is no one ready in the Twins bullpen when Nathan walks Miguel Cairo in the 12th inning.
This is just as inexcusable as #1. It’s possible to see some semblance of logic in Gardy’s decision to trot Nathan out there for the 12th (I’m not saying I actually saw any logic there; I’m just saying that it’s possible). But there is no excuse for not having Jesse Crain warmed up and ready to face Jeter and/or A-Rod. Gardy, I know it’s a pressure situation and you want to have “your guys” out there, but the kid has proven himself already this year! He’s murder against righties (.158 BAA) and he’s very capable of getting the big strikeout. I simply can’t believe he wasn’t even warming up at the start of the inning.
I know Gardenhire made a few other mistakes throughout the course of the game, but these were two that really stuck out in my mind. Unfortunately, it seems he hasn’t learned his lesson quite yet: there’s a report from mlb.com indicating Gardenhire might start utilityman Augie Ojeda over Cuddyer at second base tonight. I’m hoping it’s just a silly rumor, but this sounds like something Gardy might do. How could you possibly justify benching arguably your hottest hitter in a near must-win game? Who cares if Augie knocks down one or two more balls that second base? Ojeda’s an 0-4 waiting to happen, and we’ve already got one of those (see Blanco, Henry). Cuddyer has performed admirably at second thus far this series, and he’ll be just fine again, even with the grounder-inducing Silva on the hill.
Final Thoughts
And now, back to the matter at hand. I’m going to go out on a limb here and forecast a Twins win tonight. I said I was skeptical yesterday, but I changed my tune a bit when I heard that Brown would be the Yankees’ starter-by-default. If Silva doesn’t implode, I think the Twins will be able to manufacture a few runs off Brown and get into the Yankee bullpen (the weak part of their bullpen, that is). I’m predicting a 7-4 Twins victory
If in fact the Twins can rebound tonight and take Game 3, they should be in great position Saturday afternoon. Johan Santana will almost assuredly start, and he hasn’t had two consecutive below-average starts (below average for him, that is) in months. But that won’t mean a thing if the Jackal doesn’t have that swing tonight.
That’s all for today. We usually don’t post on weekends, but John will be in attendance at tonight’s game and says he’ll have a recap up for Saturday morning. Be sure and stop by then. Have a good one.
So while tonight’s game is not a do-or-die situation for the Twins, it’s about as close as it gets. That’s a ton of pressure for a 25 year-old with absolutely no postseason experience. Let’s hope Carlos “The Jackal” is up to the task.
Over the past 24 hours, I have recovered somewhat from yesterday’s stunning loss, enough to finally think clearly about the future ahead. There is no doubt that tonight’s game is extremely important for both teams. If the Twins lose, they will be hard pressed to win twice (once at The Stadium), especially given the way Brad Radke pitched Wednesday. If the Yankees lose, they will be in the most unenviable of positions: they must beat Johan Santana on the road in an elimination game. Both teams realize the importance of tonight’s contest, and both will do whatever it takes to win.
The Pitching Matchup
In addition to the intrigue created by the series’ first two games, tonight’s battle will also feature the most interesting pitching matchups of the series. Carlos Silva (14-8, 4.21 ERA in 33 starts) will go up against “Next Great Champ” hopeful Kevin Brown (10-6, 4.09 ERA in 22 starts).
Brown, who has thrown only 5 2/3 innings over the past five weeks since losing that fight with a locker room wall, is the wild card in this game. It is possible that he’ll be effective enough to give the Yankees a fighting chance. The Twins are a relatively undisciplined offensive team, and if Brown’s sinker is on, the Twins will probably be unable to lay off. Notice, however, the added emphasis placed on the word “if”. Even before his scatter-brained injury, Kevin Brown was not the Kevin Brown of old. He started only two games in June and none in July. In August, he was mediocre, posting a 4.05 ERA while allowing 11 walks and 33 hits in 33 1/3 innings. And who could forget his fiasco against the Red Sox a couple weeks ago? The Twins can get to Kevin Brown, and if they can knock him out early, things will to look even better. With Tanyon Sturtze likely unavailable, tonight’s Yankee long reliever is none other than… Esteban Loaiza. Let the feeding frenzy begin.
Of course, none of this will matter if Silva cannot be even mildly effective against the New York All-Stars. The Twins aren’t going to outslug the Yankees anytime soon, so Silva is going to have to expand upon his September success and keep the Bombers at least somewhat in check. There can be no five-inning, seven earned run performances this time out. But like I said the other day, I think there is a pretty good chance that Carlos will go out there and do his job tonight. Call it a hunch, but I’ve got a good feeling about this one. If Silva can go five or six innings and allow three runs or less, there’s a good chance the Twins might just steal this one.
Managerial Mishaps
Wednesday’s game was not Ron Gardenhire’s finest moment, and I think (and hope) that he would be the first to admit it. He obviously screwed up big time by leaving Nathan out there for the 12th, but there were at least two other mistakes that were just as costly.
1. Not pinch-hitting Lew Ford for Jason Kubel in the 8th with men on second and third with one out.
This was by far the biggest at-bat of the game, yet Gardenhire chose to stick with the 22 year-old rookie, he of the 70 major league plate appearances. To make matters worse, Kubel had only faced Rivera twice in his short major league career (he was 0-1 with a walk). Also, everyone knows that a lefthanded hitter has absolutely no advantage against Rivera’s cutter, so that excuse isn’t valid either. Worried about not having an emergency outfielder? What about Michael Cuddyer? There was simply no good reason for Gardy to leave his leading hitter on the bench in that situation, and the non-decision possibly cost the Twins the game.
2. There is no one ready in the Twins bullpen when Nathan walks Miguel Cairo in the 12th inning.
This is just as inexcusable as #1. It’s possible to see some semblance of logic in Gardy’s decision to trot Nathan out there for the 12th (I’m not saying I actually saw any logic there; I’m just saying that it’s possible). But there is no excuse for not having Jesse Crain warmed up and ready to face Jeter and/or A-Rod. Gardy, I know it’s a pressure situation and you want to have “your guys” out there, but the kid has proven himself already this year! He’s murder against righties (.158 BAA) and he’s very capable of getting the big strikeout. I simply can’t believe he wasn’t even warming up at the start of the inning.
I know Gardenhire made a few other mistakes throughout the course of the game, but these were two that really stuck out in my mind. Unfortunately, it seems he hasn’t learned his lesson quite yet: there’s a report from mlb.com indicating Gardenhire might start utilityman Augie Ojeda over Cuddyer at second base tonight. I’m hoping it’s just a silly rumor, but this sounds like something Gardy might do. How could you possibly justify benching arguably your hottest hitter in a near must-win game? Who cares if Augie knocks down one or two more balls that second base? Ojeda’s an 0-4 waiting to happen, and we’ve already got one of those (see Blanco, Henry). Cuddyer has performed admirably at second thus far this series, and he’ll be just fine again, even with the grounder-inducing Silva on the hill.
Final Thoughts
And now, back to the matter at hand. I’m going to go out on a limb here and forecast a Twins win tonight. I said I was skeptical yesterday, but I changed my tune a bit when I heard that Brown would be the Yankees’ starter-by-default. If Silva doesn’t implode, I think the Twins will be able to manufacture a few runs off Brown and get into the Yankee bullpen (the weak part of their bullpen, that is). I’m predicting a 7-4 Twins victory
If in fact the Twins can rebound tonight and take Game 3, they should be in great position Saturday afternoon. Johan Santana will almost assuredly start, and he hasn’t had two consecutive below-average starts (below average for him, that is) in months. But that won’t mean a thing if the Jackal doesn’t have that swing tonight.
That’s all for today. We usually don’t post on weekends, but John will be in attendance at tonight’s game and says he’ll have a recap up for Saturday morning. Be sure and stop by then. Have a good one.
Stunned
One bounce.
One choice.
One swing.
Baseball is a game of turning points, and last night the Twins made one too many turns. Simply put, yesterday’s 7-6 loss was one of the most bone-crushing, strength-sapping, emotionally draining games in franchise history. It was the worst nightmare of any Twins fan come to life. I could probably go on forever, but quite honestly, I don’t feel up to it. Instead, I’m going to quickly touch on a couple of relevant topics pertaining to last night’s game.
As utterly disappointing as the ending was, you have to admit that it was one of the most exciting games this team has played in years. Down by two runs to the Yankees with Mariano Rivera in the game? You might as well phone it in; that’s how good he usually is. But Corey Koskie delivered with an über-clutch RBI double to conclude what was the team’s best at-bat this season, and it looked like the Twins might steal one in regulation. That hope was dashed in one moment: the bounce. If the Twins are playing in any other stadium in the major leagues, Koskie’s double rattles around in the corner, Rivas scores easily from first and the Twins take a 5-4 lead. Instead, it bounced into the stands, setting up a predictable Jason Kubel strikeout. Guzy couldn’t come through either and the Twins had to be content with a tie.
Fast forward to the 12th inning. Torii Hunter (who would have been the game’s hero had the outcome been different) has put the Twins ahead by a run, and Ron Gardenhire has a choice to make. Does he leave in his closer for an unprecedented third consecutive inning, simply because he’s the closer and it’s a save situation? Or does he go to a fresh Jesse Crain out of the bullpen? Hindsight is 20/20, so we all know what the right choice would have been, but at the time it wasn’t quite as obvious. Had Nathan been able to get the job done, Gardy would look like a genius today, but it didn’t happen. If the Yankees win this series we’ll undoubtedly hear the Grady Little comparisons (in fact we’re already hearing them now), but I think that is unfair. I disagree with Joe Morgan (the TV commentator last night) about a great many things, but he hit the nail on the head: Gardy took a chance and it backfired on him, simple as that. Ever hear the old saying “you play with fire, you get burned”? Gardy’s getting treated for some major third degree burns about now.
As much as it pains me to admit, the Yankees deserve a little credit as well. They knew Nathan was gassed, and they made him throw strikes. And when that strike finally came, A-Rod hammered it. In just about any other ballpark that’s a three-run homer, so it was no cheap double. It seems Rodriguez has finally earned the respect of the Yankee faithful.
We don’t yet know the ramifications of this game. Can the Twins bounce back in Game 3? I’m skeptical. I know these guys are big leaguers, but there are simply so many factors working against them. The Yankees have their swagger back, while the Twins are on their heels. Plus, the Yanks get to face Carlos Silva, who will need to pitch out of his mind to avoid a shelling on Friday. Going back to the Dome with a split seemed acceptable before the series began, but now I’m not so sure. A lot of things will have to go right for the Twins to win this series, and it’s going to be an uphill battle. Everything rests on the shoulders of Silva right now. Let’s hope he’s up to it.
Sorry about the truncated length of today’s post. When you follow a team so closely for so long, you can’t help but invest your emotions in that team. When something like yesterday happens, it’s tough to take.
The Twins are off today, so be sure and check this space again tomorrow as we’ll have an in-depth look at Game 3. In the meantime, stay strong and hope for the best.
-Ryan Maus
twinsfan21@msn.com
One choice.
One swing.
Baseball is a game of turning points, and last night the Twins made one too many turns. Simply put, yesterday’s 7-6 loss was one of the most bone-crushing, strength-sapping, emotionally draining games in franchise history. It was the worst nightmare of any Twins fan come to life. I could probably go on forever, but quite honestly, I don’t feel up to it. Instead, I’m going to quickly touch on a couple of relevant topics pertaining to last night’s game.
As utterly disappointing as the ending was, you have to admit that it was one of the most exciting games this team has played in years. Down by two runs to the Yankees with Mariano Rivera in the game? You might as well phone it in; that’s how good he usually is. But Corey Koskie delivered with an über-clutch RBI double to conclude what was the team’s best at-bat this season, and it looked like the Twins might steal one in regulation. That hope was dashed in one moment: the bounce. If the Twins are playing in any other stadium in the major leagues, Koskie’s double rattles around in the corner, Rivas scores easily from first and the Twins take a 5-4 lead. Instead, it bounced into the stands, setting up a predictable Jason Kubel strikeout. Guzy couldn’t come through either and the Twins had to be content with a tie.
Fast forward to the 12th inning. Torii Hunter (who would have been the game’s hero had the outcome been different) has put the Twins ahead by a run, and Ron Gardenhire has a choice to make. Does he leave in his closer for an unprecedented third consecutive inning, simply because he’s the closer and it’s a save situation? Or does he go to a fresh Jesse Crain out of the bullpen? Hindsight is 20/20, so we all know what the right choice would have been, but at the time it wasn’t quite as obvious. Had Nathan been able to get the job done, Gardy would look like a genius today, but it didn’t happen. If the Yankees win this series we’ll undoubtedly hear the Grady Little comparisons (in fact we’re already hearing them now), but I think that is unfair. I disagree with Joe Morgan (the TV commentator last night) about a great many things, but he hit the nail on the head: Gardy took a chance and it backfired on him, simple as that. Ever hear the old saying “you play with fire, you get burned”? Gardy’s getting treated for some major third degree burns about now.
As much as it pains me to admit, the Yankees deserve a little credit as well. They knew Nathan was gassed, and they made him throw strikes. And when that strike finally came, A-Rod hammered it. In just about any other ballpark that’s a three-run homer, so it was no cheap double. It seems Rodriguez has finally earned the respect of the Yankee faithful.
We don’t yet know the ramifications of this game. Can the Twins bounce back in Game 3? I’m skeptical. I know these guys are big leaguers, but there are simply so many factors working against them. The Yankees have their swagger back, while the Twins are on their heels. Plus, the Yanks get to face Carlos Silva, who will need to pitch out of his mind to avoid a shelling on Friday. Going back to the Dome with a split seemed acceptable before the series began, but now I’m not so sure. A lot of things will have to go right for the Twins to win this series, and it’s going to be an uphill battle. Everything rests on the shoulders of Silva right now. Let’s hope he’s up to it.
Sorry about the truncated length of today’s post. When you follow a team so closely for so long, you can’t help but invest your emotions in that team. When something like yesterday happens, it’s tough to take.
The Twins are off today, so be sure and check this space again tomorrow as we’ll have an in-depth look at Game 3. In the meantime, stay strong and hope for the best.
-Ryan Maus
twinsfan21@msn.com
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Playoff Fever: Starting Off With a Bang!
About a month ago I quit biting my nails. It was a terrible habit and someone seemed to catch me doing it at all the worst possible times. Usually, when I decide to do something I go full bore into it; quitting has to be cold turkey or nothing. For a while there, I was so proud of my own will power. Sadly, my new nails are only a memory after last night’s game. For almost a month, people have talked about how this could be "the year" for the Twins. They finally had the weapons to be taken seriously. If the Twins had lost last night, none of that would have mattered. The series and their season would have been essentially over. The psychological effect of being down to the Yankees after throwing their best pitcher since 1991 would have been too much to overcome. Instead, Johan Santana and the rest of the team pulled through. They didn’t exactly follow the script in doing so, but it put them where they need to be.
Johan was not the same pitcher who dominated the American League during the second half of the season. He was very hittable and the Yankees had numerous threats going all night. Santana struggled locating his pitches, but he was able to adapt. As a result, he toyed with the Yankees sluggers, getting the big strikeout double play when he needed to get out of a jam. There are no words to describe how amazing it is that a 25 year-old pitcher can come into Yankees Stadium against the most storied franchise in baseball, not have his best stuff, and still hand the Yankees their second postseason shutout in as many games.
Santana was largely helped by the defense behind him. People were worried about how Michael Cuddyer would play in the field going into the series. Last night he made every play he needed to and even turned several difficult double plays before exiting the game in the 8th. The Twins defense as a whole came to play and they were lead by Torii Hunter. Hunter threw a bullet to nail Jorge Posada at the plate early in the game. If Posada had scored, it would have been a different game, as the Twins would have had to play catch-up. Later, as the Yankees tried to get back into the game, Hunter came up big again robbing Alex Rodriguez of an extra-base hit while crashing into the wall. No doubt A-Rod will be placing a call to Barry Bonds to vent his frustration.
Since the Doug Mientkiewicz trade Torii Hunter has taken control of the team. He said that this team was going to play with a new intensity coming into the playoffs, and he backed that statement up on Tuesday. He understands that if the Twins want to be the best, they have to beat the best. There is no reason they should back down. They have been in the playoffs for 3 straight years and the time of playing in awe of the opponent is over.
The Twins did just enough to scratch across the runs they needed to win. Cuddyer, who is in the lineup for his bat, had two hits, the first being the most important. Henry Blanco, who is definitely not in the lineup for his bat, then laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt to put him in scoring position. Shannon Stewart then continued to be the driving force of the offense by driving home the first run of the game. The second run came off the bat of Jacque Jones, who had been struggling both on the field and with the death of his father. He is at his best when he is driving the ball the opposite way and he finally did that in his last two at-bats. It was a great thing that he was able to get the homer and it was a special moment as he rounded the bases and crossed home plate.
Juan Rincon and Joe Nathan then shut the door on the victory with two shutout innings. They both needed to get their feet wet pitching for the first time in their roles in the postseason. They were more than able to accomplish that and ease any concerns about experience. If they can continue to be lights out, it shrinks the game down to 7 innings. Not a bad proposition with pitchers like Santana and Game 2 starter Brad Radke on the team.
The Yankees showed their flaws last night as well. They are a team that relies on the home run, and when it doesn’t come, they are unable to put together big innings. They made several costly baserunning mistakes to run themselves out of a couple early opportunities. They fired their three best bullets in Mike Mussina, Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera and still lost. Now they must rely on Jon Lieber, Orlando Hernandez, Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez to win at least two games.
The best battle of the game came with Gary Sheffield at the plate with a runner on first. He took some powerful swings and really looked like he wanted to drive a pitch out of the park. Santana battled as Sheffield fouled off several pitchers before finally grounding into a double play. Prior to and even after that at-bat, Santana had struggled with his control. However, he was in the zone pitching to Sheffield. He never let him get comfortable and was as wicked as ever. That confrontation defined the game and perhaps Santana as a pitcher.
Looking ahead, this series is not over by a long shot. The Twins needed to win this game as they do every time Santana pitches. Unfortunately, nothing in baseball is a given. They have a great shot to win Game 2 with their horse Brad Radke on the mound tonight. They have momentum and home field advantage.
The Yankees are not going to just lie down though. They don’t want to be embarrassed by losing 2 games in their house. They still have a lineup filled with All-Stars and pitchers capable of showing up on any particular day. The Twins won the first game last year too. The difference this year is that they want it more and are no longer afraid of the “mystique,” letting their talent to do the talking instead. In the meantime, I have to deal with the agony of some very short nails and the knowledge that I get to do it all over again tonight and hopefully, for the next 3 weeks.
-John Betzler
Ryan's quick take on Game 1
Hello, Twins fans. I just thought I would supplement John's post today with a couple thoughts of my own about yesterday's Game 1.
Many people (i.e. Yankee fans and those who foretold a Yankee victory) will point to yesterday's win and say, "The Twins won the first game last year too, and that didn't mean a thing." Well, I'm here to tell those people otherwise. While it pains me to admit it, the Yankees pretty much gave the Twins Game 1 last year. Bernie Williams and Alfonso Soriano single-handedly gave the Twins two runs (the margin of victory in the 3-1 win) and the Yankees simply did not play well. The Twins didn't play all that well either; they just took advantage of New York's mistakes.
Last night was different. The Yankees were focused and ready to go, and they no longer consider the Twins to be a mere speed bump on the road to the World Series. They knew Johan Santana was going to be tough, and they were ready for him. Instead of a gift win, last night's victory was well-deserved. The Twins won the same way they have all season: good pitching, great defense, and the occasional clutch hit. The Yankees didn't serve up a nice fat one this time; the Twins were ready to go and did what they had to do.
As opposed to 2003, I'm no longer just hoping that the Twins will capitalize on their Game 1 victory. I expect them to.
-Ryan Maus
Johan was not the same pitcher who dominated the American League during the second half of the season. He was very hittable and the Yankees had numerous threats going all night. Santana struggled locating his pitches, but he was able to adapt. As a result, he toyed with the Yankees sluggers, getting the big strikeout double play when he needed to get out of a jam. There are no words to describe how amazing it is that a 25 year-old pitcher can come into Yankees Stadium against the most storied franchise in baseball, not have his best stuff, and still hand the Yankees their second postseason shutout in as many games.
Santana was largely helped by the defense behind him. People were worried about how Michael Cuddyer would play in the field going into the series. Last night he made every play he needed to and even turned several difficult double plays before exiting the game in the 8th. The Twins defense as a whole came to play and they were lead by Torii Hunter. Hunter threw a bullet to nail Jorge Posada at the plate early in the game. If Posada had scored, it would have been a different game, as the Twins would have had to play catch-up. Later, as the Yankees tried to get back into the game, Hunter came up big again robbing Alex Rodriguez of an extra-base hit while crashing into the wall. No doubt A-Rod will be placing a call to Barry Bonds to vent his frustration.
Since the Doug Mientkiewicz trade Torii Hunter has taken control of the team. He said that this team was going to play with a new intensity coming into the playoffs, and he backed that statement up on Tuesday. He understands that if the Twins want to be the best, they have to beat the best. There is no reason they should back down. They have been in the playoffs for 3 straight years and the time of playing in awe of the opponent is over.
The Twins did just enough to scratch across the runs they needed to win. Cuddyer, who is in the lineup for his bat, had two hits, the first being the most important. Henry Blanco, who is definitely not in the lineup for his bat, then laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt to put him in scoring position. Shannon Stewart then continued to be the driving force of the offense by driving home the first run of the game. The second run came off the bat of Jacque Jones, who had been struggling both on the field and with the death of his father. He is at his best when he is driving the ball the opposite way and he finally did that in his last two at-bats. It was a great thing that he was able to get the homer and it was a special moment as he rounded the bases and crossed home plate.
Juan Rincon and Joe Nathan then shut the door on the victory with two shutout innings. They both needed to get their feet wet pitching for the first time in their roles in the postseason. They were more than able to accomplish that and ease any concerns about experience. If they can continue to be lights out, it shrinks the game down to 7 innings. Not a bad proposition with pitchers like Santana and Game 2 starter Brad Radke on the team.
The Yankees showed their flaws last night as well. They are a team that relies on the home run, and when it doesn’t come, they are unable to put together big innings. They made several costly baserunning mistakes to run themselves out of a couple early opportunities. They fired their three best bullets in Mike Mussina, Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera and still lost. Now they must rely on Jon Lieber, Orlando Hernandez, Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez to win at least two games.
The best battle of the game came with Gary Sheffield at the plate with a runner on first. He took some powerful swings and really looked like he wanted to drive a pitch out of the park. Santana battled as Sheffield fouled off several pitchers before finally grounding into a double play. Prior to and even after that at-bat, Santana had struggled with his control. However, he was in the zone pitching to Sheffield. He never let him get comfortable and was as wicked as ever. That confrontation defined the game and perhaps Santana as a pitcher.
Looking ahead, this series is not over by a long shot. The Twins needed to win this game as they do every time Santana pitches. Unfortunately, nothing in baseball is a given. They have a great shot to win Game 2 with their horse Brad Radke on the mound tonight. They have momentum and home field advantage.
The Yankees are not going to just lie down though. They don’t want to be embarrassed by losing 2 games in their house. They still have a lineup filled with All-Stars and pitchers capable of showing up on any particular day. The Twins won the first game last year too. The difference this year is that they want it more and are no longer afraid of the “mystique,” letting their talent to do the talking instead. In the meantime, I have to deal with the agony of some very short nails and the knowledge that I get to do it all over again tonight and hopefully, for the next 3 weeks.
-John Betzler
Hello, Twins fans. I just thought I would supplement John's post today with a couple thoughts of my own about yesterday's Game 1.
Many people (i.e. Yankee fans and those who foretold a Yankee victory) will point to yesterday's win and say, "The Twins won the first game last year too, and that didn't mean a thing." Well, I'm here to tell those people otherwise. While it pains me to admit it, the Yankees pretty much gave the Twins Game 1 last year. Bernie Williams and Alfonso Soriano single-handedly gave the Twins two runs (the margin of victory in the 3-1 win) and the Yankees simply did not play well. The Twins didn't play all that well either; they just took advantage of New York's mistakes.
Last night was different. The Yankees were focused and ready to go, and they no longer consider the Twins to be a mere speed bump on the road to the World Series. They knew Johan Santana was going to be tough, and they were ready for him. Instead of a gift win, last night's victory was well-deserved. The Twins won the same way they have all season: good pitching, great defense, and the occasional clutch hit. The Yankees didn't serve up a nice fat one this time; the Twins were ready to go and did what they had to do.
As opposed to 2003, I'm no longer just hoping that the Twins will capitalize on their Game 1 victory. I expect them to.
-Ryan Maus
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Can It Be Done?
If you’ve paid any attention to the local or national media over the past couple of days, you have seen a wide variety of predictions and prognostication when it comes to this week’s ALDS match-up between our Minnesota Twins and the hated New York Yankees. ESPN’s Buster Olney is picking the Yanks in four. ESPN.com’s Jim Caple and Michael Kinsley are saying the Twins in five, while 13 of ESPN’s so-called “experts” are siding with the Yankees. On the other side of the spectrum, CNNSI’s Dan George goes so far as to say that the Twins are headed for a World Series title.
Which of these writers know what they are talking about and which are simply blowing steam out of their respective rear ends? Pundit predictions usually are not worth their weight in Kleenex, so I don’t usually place too much stock in them. That said, I’m not averse to throwing my two cents into the pot. After all, isn’t that why you stopped by this site in the first place?
It is obvious that the Twins are a more formidable opponent for the Bombers this year, if only because of one man: Johan Santana. However, even Johan cannot single-handedly beat the Yankees. Below, I’ve highlighted a few of the major issues that surround this series, all with one single question in mind: Can the Twins really beat the 26-time World Series champions this time around?
1. Can Johan Santana really shut down the Yankees twice in a five game series?
The answer to this question seems obvious. “Of course Johan can beat the Yankees twice,” you’re probably saying by now. “He’s Johan!” Yes, Santana has been the best pitcher in the majors the last four months (by a wide margin), and by now you’ve probably all heard the stats: 18-2, 1.36 ERA, and 204 strikeouts in 22 starts since mid-June, not to mention a nifty 0.45 ERA in September. It seems reasonable to assume that he will continue his streak of utter domination in the Bronx tonight, but if baseball’s postseason has taught us anything over the past century or so, it should be this: don’t assume anything. I still think Johan will pitch well today and in Game 4 or 5, but I’m not expecting eight innings of shutout ball both times out. Anytime Santana pitches, the Twins have a great chance to win, but they have to take advantage of that chance by giving Johan at least marginal run support. That has been a major problem for the Twins at various points this season, it could easily happen again this October. Santana may pitch great, but a 2-1 loss is a loss just the same.
Answer: Yes, but the Twins need to get him some early run support
2. Will the Twins offense take advantage of New York’s suspect starting staff?
As you can already tell, just because I write about the Twins does not mean I am a clueless optimist. While the Twins have numerous weapons in their lineup, overall, they are not a great offensive team. Remember Scott Elarton? Jason Johnson? What about Chad Durbin? They are all second-rate starting pitchers who have shut down the Twins at one point this season. Unfortunately, because this lineup is composed of many good-but-not-great hitters, they are somewhat prone to the occasional inexplicable shutout. Mussina, Lieber, Hernandez, and Brown may all have seen better days, but if anything, they are all savvy veterans who "know" how to pitch. If Mussina and Lieber are on their respective games (a HUGE if, given their recent performance), the Twins may struggle to score runs. Not one of these pitchers will strike fear into the hearts of Lew, Torii, and company. If they do make mistakes in the strike zone, I’m confident the Twins will take advantage.
By comparison, Santana and Radke will each have to be nearly perfect in order to keep the Yankees in check. Their lineup is extremely dangerous from top to bottom, and there is little room for error.
Answer: I would like to think so, but inconsistently can strike at any time. We shall see what unfolds.
3. What can the Twins expect from Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse?
When discussing the Twins’ starting pitching, nearly all the focus has been on Johan Santana and Brad Radke, with good reason: Minnesota’s playoff chances will likely rest on the capable throwing arms of these two men. But what about the “other” duo, the pair that will possibly start two-fifths of this series? The wild card of this series is none other than Carlos Silva. He has largely been ignored by the media, and it has been assumed that the Yankees will feast on Silva’s delectable assortment of sinkers and fastballs when they face him on Friday. That may not be the case. Silva had an excellent month of September, going 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA, and has pitched well at home all season. He gives up a ton of hits, but does a pretty good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. He also induces a lot of double plays, which may be key against a Yankee team that doesn’t have much speed. Six innings with three runs seems like a distinct possibility for Silva on Friday, which should be good enough for a Twins win, especially if the Yankees are forced to send the nose-diving Javier Vazquez to the mound.
As for Lohse, I was extremely disappointed to hear Ron Gardenhire announce he may start Game 4 if the Twins are up two games to one in the series. This is a big mistake on Gardy’s part. While there is an outside chance that Silva will pitch well against the Yankees, there is no doubt that Lohse will be torn to shreds. He has been horribly inconsistent all season long, and seems an unlikely candidate to finally “turn it around” in the playoffs. The Twins should go with Santana on three days’ rest no matter how the series stands. As Joe Torre has demonstrated so well over the past eight years, you have to shoot all your bullets in the postseason. Gardy has to go for the jugular and keep Lohse buried in the bullpen.
Answer: Silva may surprise, but giving Lohse a start is a big mistake.
4. What impact will “Yankee mystique” have on the outcome of this series?
Many people nationwide are siding with the Yankees in this battle simply because “they are the Yankees.” I’ll say this right now: that sentiment means absolutely nothing to these Twins, just as it didn’t last year when they played two close games at The Stadium. The Yankees are just as beatable this year as they were in ’01, ’02, and ’03. If enough things fall into place for the Twins, there is no reason they can’t send Steinbrenner’s millionaires home early.
Answer: None. The Twins won’t be intimidated; they believe they can win.
These four issues will play a major role in determining the winner of this year’s ALDS match-up between the Twins and Yanks, but many other questions remain. Will Justin Morneau provide the power threat that was sorely lacking a year ago? How will Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon handle the pressures of the postseason? Can Michael Cuddyer play adequate defense at second base? It has been established that the Twins can beat the Yankees, but the question persists: will it be done?
That, my friends, remains to be seen.
Which of these writers know what they are talking about and which are simply blowing steam out of their respective rear ends? Pundit predictions usually are not worth their weight in Kleenex, so I don’t usually place too much stock in them. That said, I’m not averse to throwing my two cents into the pot. After all, isn’t that why you stopped by this site in the first place?
It is obvious that the Twins are a more formidable opponent for the Bombers this year, if only because of one man: Johan Santana. However, even Johan cannot single-handedly beat the Yankees. Below, I’ve highlighted a few of the major issues that surround this series, all with one single question in mind: Can the Twins really beat the 26-time World Series champions this time around?
1. Can Johan Santana really shut down the Yankees twice in a five game series?
The answer to this question seems obvious. “Of course Johan can beat the Yankees twice,” you’re probably saying by now. “He’s Johan!” Yes, Santana has been the best pitcher in the majors the last four months (by a wide margin), and by now you’ve probably all heard the stats: 18-2, 1.36 ERA, and 204 strikeouts in 22 starts since mid-June, not to mention a nifty 0.45 ERA in September. It seems reasonable to assume that he will continue his streak of utter domination in the Bronx tonight, but if baseball’s postseason has taught us anything over the past century or so, it should be this: don’t assume anything. I still think Johan will pitch well today and in Game 4 or 5, but I’m not expecting eight innings of shutout ball both times out. Anytime Santana pitches, the Twins have a great chance to win, but they have to take advantage of that chance by giving Johan at least marginal run support. That has been a major problem for the Twins at various points this season, it could easily happen again this October. Santana may pitch great, but a 2-1 loss is a loss just the same.
Answer: Yes, but the Twins need to get him some early run support
2. Will the Twins offense take advantage of New York’s suspect starting staff?
As you can already tell, just because I write about the Twins does not mean I am a clueless optimist. While the Twins have numerous weapons in their lineup, overall, they are not a great offensive team. Remember Scott Elarton? Jason Johnson? What about Chad Durbin? They are all second-rate starting pitchers who have shut down the Twins at one point this season. Unfortunately, because this lineup is composed of many good-but-not-great hitters, they are somewhat prone to the occasional inexplicable shutout. Mussina, Lieber, Hernandez, and Brown may all have seen better days, but if anything, they are all savvy veterans who "know" how to pitch. If Mussina and Lieber are on their respective games (a HUGE if, given their recent performance), the Twins may struggle to score runs. Not one of these pitchers will strike fear into the hearts of Lew, Torii, and company. If they do make mistakes in the strike zone, I’m confident the Twins will take advantage.
By comparison, Santana and Radke will each have to be nearly perfect in order to keep the Yankees in check. Their lineup is extremely dangerous from top to bottom, and there is little room for error.
Answer: I would like to think so, but inconsistently can strike at any time. We shall see what unfolds.
3. What can the Twins expect from Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse?
When discussing the Twins’ starting pitching, nearly all the focus has been on Johan Santana and Brad Radke, with good reason: Minnesota’s playoff chances will likely rest on the capable throwing arms of these two men. But what about the “other” duo, the pair that will possibly start two-fifths of this series? The wild card of this series is none other than Carlos Silva. He has largely been ignored by the media, and it has been assumed that the Yankees will feast on Silva’s delectable assortment of sinkers and fastballs when they face him on Friday. That may not be the case. Silva had an excellent month of September, going 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA, and has pitched well at home all season. He gives up a ton of hits, but does a pretty good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. He also induces a lot of double plays, which may be key against a Yankee team that doesn’t have much speed. Six innings with three runs seems like a distinct possibility for Silva on Friday, which should be good enough for a Twins win, especially if the Yankees are forced to send the nose-diving Javier Vazquez to the mound.
As for Lohse, I was extremely disappointed to hear Ron Gardenhire announce he may start Game 4 if the Twins are up two games to one in the series. This is a big mistake on Gardy’s part. While there is an outside chance that Silva will pitch well against the Yankees, there is no doubt that Lohse will be torn to shreds. He has been horribly inconsistent all season long, and seems an unlikely candidate to finally “turn it around” in the playoffs. The Twins should go with Santana on three days’ rest no matter how the series stands. As Joe Torre has demonstrated so well over the past eight years, you have to shoot all your bullets in the postseason. Gardy has to go for the jugular and keep Lohse buried in the bullpen.
Answer: Silva may surprise, but giving Lohse a start is a big mistake.
4. What impact will “Yankee mystique” have on the outcome of this series?
Many people nationwide are siding with the Yankees in this battle simply because “they are the Yankees.” I’ll say this right now: that sentiment means absolutely nothing to these Twins, just as it didn’t last year when they played two close games at The Stadium. The Yankees are just as beatable this year as they were in ’01, ’02, and ’03. If enough things fall into place for the Twins, there is no reason they can’t send Steinbrenner’s millionaires home early.
Answer: None. The Twins won’t be intimidated; they believe they can win.
These four issues will play a major role in determining the winner of this year’s ALDS match-up between the Twins and Yanks, but many other questions remain. Will Justin Morneau provide the power threat that was sorely lacking a year ago? How will Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon handle the pressures of the postseason? Can Michael Cuddyer play adequate defense at second base? It has been established that the Twins can beat the Yankees, but the question persists: will it be done?
That, my friends, remains to be seen.
Welcome to Twins Chatter
On behalf of my co-blogger John Betzler, I want to welcome all our first-time visitors to Twins Chatter, our humble Twins blog. We began this joint endevor way back in April as a way to express our Twins-related thoughts and opinions to the public. We've had our ups and downs since then, as have the Twins, but we're back on track and ready to turn it on for the postseason. We post nearly every weeday, with John and I alternating every other day. The fact that we have two writers is a source of strength for this site. You get twice the amount of insight, analysis, and opinionated Twins discussion, which helps keep things lively. I consider Twins Chatter to be the blog of the "common man": we use statistics on occasion, but for the most part we rely on our observations and knowledge of the game for material.
After you read my post for today (entitled "Can It Be Done" and located directly below this entry), feel free to scroll down the page and read our posts from earlier this week as well. Also, be sure to brose through our Archives section, which is on the left side of the page.
I hope you like what you've seen at Twins Chatter. If you have any comments/questions/cocerns, simply click on the "comments" link below or e-mail me at twinsfan21@msn.com or John at john.betzler@mnsu.edu. Thanks again for stopping by and be sure to check us out again tomorrow (and throughout the postseason) when John will post his thoughts and reactions from tonight's Game 1 of the ALDS.
-Ryan Maus, Twins Chatter
From left to right: Me (Ryan), John, John Bonnes (a.k.a Twins Geek), and Aaron Gleeman
After you read my post for today (entitled "Can It Be Done" and located directly below this entry), feel free to scroll down the page and read our posts from earlier this week as well. Also, be sure to brose through our Archives section, which is on the left side of the page.
I hope you like what you've seen at Twins Chatter. If you have any comments/questions/cocerns, simply click on the "comments" link below or e-mail me at twinsfan21@msn.com or John at john.betzler@mnsu.edu. Thanks again for stopping by and be sure to check us out again tomorrow (and throughout the postseason) when John will post his thoughts and reactions from tonight's Game 1 of the ALDS.
-Ryan Maus, Twins Chatter
From left to right: Me (Ryan), John, John Bonnes (a.k.a Twins Geek), and Aaron Gleeman
Sunday, October 03, 2004
Playoff Previews: Three Reasons Say It All
With a screeching halt, the marathon that is the Major League Baseball season came to an end this weekend. Anaheim beat Oakland to claim home field advantage in the first round and send the Twins to New York, while the Dodgers and Houston prevailed in the National League. The Twins did save themselves from entering the playoffs without any momentum by winning 2 out of 3 from Cleveland, including a game played 11 innings one day and finished in 22 minutes the next. The Twins finally know their fate is to play the perennial powerhouse Yankees, the same ones who swept them just last week. That was a different team playing on a different level. The Twins enter the second season believing this is their year and they just might be right. Today, Twins Chatter gives you three reasons the Twins will win the World Series and three reasons why they might have to wait until next year.
It’s all about the Pitching...
And the Twins have lots of it. They finally have a dominant starter capable of beating anyone in the playoffs. Johan Santana has not been fazed by pressure all year and seems poised to put the icing on a magical season. The pitching staff runs deeper then Santana; Brad Radke has been a great complement all year long and has pitched great in the playoffs before. Together they bring back memories of the great pitching tandems that won it all in 1987 and '91. Carlos Silva has come on in the last month of the season and could give the team a major boost from the third starter. The bullpen may be overworked but has the power to overpower and dominate. The Yankees starters have had a slew of up and down seasons and no one knows what to expect out of them. Their bullpen has been overworked, and outside of Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon, largely ineffective. Boston has the starters to match up with the Twins, but once they get to their bullpen, it could get scary. It has been inconsistent and the Twins have hit Keith Foulke hard before. There are some intriguing pitchers in the National League but none of them are good enough to match up with Johan Santana.
An extra year of experience means...
An increased ability to win. The Twins are going to the postseason for the third straight year. They have acted like they have been there before all year and they are no longer just happy to be simply included in the party. In 2002 they shocked themselves by beating Oakland and were not ready to take on Anaheim despite being favored in the series. Last year they had to play the Yankees and once again were wide eyed at the prospect of beating a team that not only had terrorized them in the regular season, but all of baseball for most of the past decade. The Twins appear to have overcome those demons and are ready to make a statement. Despite being swept by New York last weak (in what amounted to meaningless games), they played them much better against them this year. It is time for this team to take the next step now that they have become the veterans themselves. For the first time, they believe.
The Twins have weapons in their lineup
Justin Morneau is a legitimate power threat who teams have to respect. He changes the complexity of the game even when he doesn’t get a hit. Shannon Stewart sets the tone for the lineup. Lew Ford is the type of player who makes a name for himself in the playoffs; he plays hard and will not be intimidated despite a lack of experience. Torii Hunter is a gamer who wants to put the team on his back and carry them to a victory. The bench is deep and will enable Ron Gardenhire to pick his matchups. Unlike in past years, this team should not need many runs to win. They are good enough at playing small ball to scratch a run across. This includes swiping a base or laying down a sacrifice bunt when they need it.
And Three Reasons Why Not…
The intimidation factor
The Twins may be telling themselves that they are ready to win it all, but there is still no doubt that the road to the World Series still goes through Boston and New York. That road is paved with doubt, history, and about a hundred million dollars more in payroll. The Yankees do not appear to be as strong as they have been. Their pitching is suspect, but all of their starters are capable of dominating at any given time and have done so in the past. They are experienced and they expect to win. They can break a team’s spirit by hitting a game-winning home run late in a well played ballgame. Both lineups are jam packed with high-paid stars. Gary Sheffield, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez all could be the MVP. If the Twins stumble early, it could result in a snowball affect and cause a downward spiral. Curt Schilling, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera have all been there and have the rings to prove it.
The Twins have an inconsistent lineup
It has plagued them before in the playoffs and there is no reason to think it will not happen again. They have been up and down all year; they can get hot and score runs in bunches or wilt against good (and mediocre) pitching. The Twins will need clutch hitting to win because they probably won’t score a bunch of runs despite their added weapons. The problem is they haven’t always been that clutch either. Justin Morneau is inexperienced and has cooled off in the latter part of the season. Jose Offerman is older then dirt and being counted on to deliver as a pitch hitter. The lineup is filled with players who have struggled in the postseason, such as Jacque Jones who has never batted over .200. If the bats go dry the Twins will lose no matter how dominating their starting pitching is.
The bullpen is not as deep as it appears
Joe Nathan has had an extraordinary season but the postseason brings with it new challenges. He may need to go two innings in some games, and there is no telling how he will respond. J.C. Romero has had a terrible final month to the season and has been shaky all year. If the Twins count on him to get a crucial out, the game may very well get out of hand in a hurry. Jesse Crain has looked good but has never been relied upon in a must-win major league situation. After Juan Rincon, the bullpen consists of Terry Muholland (who struggled as a reliever this year) and Kyle Lohse (who just plain struggled). The two of them might not matter, but then again, who would have expected Rick Reed to be called upon to get key outs in the 2003 ALDS? The group is inexperienced and capable of giving up a lead in a hard fought 2-1 ballgame, which is all it takes to turn a series.
The best part about the playoffs is anything can happen. Some stars disappear while others emerge. No-name players step up and become heros. It is a special kind of player who can excel in the postseason, and the Twins don’t know how many of these players they have yet. Sometimes it takes a couple of tries to make it to the World Series. The Twins are in a great position to do it this year, and for the first time in three playoff appearences, they are being taken seriously by both the national media and their opponents. Other teams do not want to play them, especially in a short series. On Tuesday the Twins will get to show what they are made of. There are reasons why they should win it all and reasons why they might stumble. It's up to the Twins to decide what path they will follow.
Thank you everyone for stopping by today and sticking with us for our first season of blogging for the Twins. We are very lucky to have a great team to follow and it has been a lot of fun, as well as a learning experience. As Ryan alluded to last week, tomorrow will be a big day for this and all other Twins blogs. We are very excited. We can’t let the cat out of the bag quite yet, but make sure you stop by (you might be surprised at how many others do too!). In the meantime, have a great Monday as the Twins prepare to open up in New York tomorrow. And don’t forget to read your morning paper! :)
It’s all about the Pitching...
And the Twins have lots of it. They finally have a dominant starter capable of beating anyone in the playoffs. Johan Santana has not been fazed by pressure all year and seems poised to put the icing on a magical season. The pitching staff runs deeper then Santana; Brad Radke has been a great complement all year long and has pitched great in the playoffs before. Together they bring back memories of the great pitching tandems that won it all in 1987 and '91. Carlos Silva has come on in the last month of the season and could give the team a major boost from the third starter. The bullpen may be overworked but has the power to overpower and dominate. The Yankees starters have had a slew of up and down seasons and no one knows what to expect out of them. Their bullpen has been overworked, and outside of Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon, largely ineffective. Boston has the starters to match up with the Twins, but once they get to their bullpen, it could get scary. It has been inconsistent and the Twins have hit Keith Foulke hard before. There are some intriguing pitchers in the National League but none of them are good enough to match up with Johan Santana.
An extra year of experience means...
An increased ability to win. The Twins are going to the postseason for the third straight year. They have acted like they have been there before all year and they are no longer just happy to be simply included in the party. In 2002 they shocked themselves by beating Oakland and were not ready to take on Anaheim despite being favored in the series. Last year they had to play the Yankees and once again were wide eyed at the prospect of beating a team that not only had terrorized them in the regular season, but all of baseball for most of the past decade. The Twins appear to have overcome those demons and are ready to make a statement. Despite being swept by New York last weak (in what amounted to meaningless games), they played them much better against them this year. It is time for this team to take the next step now that they have become the veterans themselves. For the first time, they believe.
The Twins have weapons in their lineup
Justin Morneau is a legitimate power threat who teams have to respect. He changes the complexity of the game even when he doesn’t get a hit. Shannon Stewart sets the tone for the lineup. Lew Ford is the type of player who makes a name for himself in the playoffs; he plays hard and will not be intimidated despite a lack of experience. Torii Hunter is a gamer who wants to put the team on his back and carry them to a victory. The bench is deep and will enable Ron Gardenhire to pick his matchups. Unlike in past years, this team should not need many runs to win. They are good enough at playing small ball to scratch a run across. This includes swiping a base or laying down a sacrifice bunt when they need it.
And Three Reasons Why Not…
The intimidation factor
The Twins may be telling themselves that they are ready to win it all, but there is still no doubt that the road to the World Series still goes through Boston and New York. That road is paved with doubt, history, and about a hundred million dollars more in payroll. The Yankees do not appear to be as strong as they have been. Their pitching is suspect, but all of their starters are capable of dominating at any given time and have done so in the past. They are experienced and they expect to win. They can break a team’s spirit by hitting a game-winning home run late in a well played ballgame. Both lineups are jam packed with high-paid stars. Gary Sheffield, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez all could be the MVP. If the Twins stumble early, it could result in a snowball affect and cause a downward spiral. Curt Schilling, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera have all been there and have the rings to prove it.
The Twins have an inconsistent lineup
It has plagued them before in the playoffs and there is no reason to think it will not happen again. They have been up and down all year; they can get hot and score runs in bunches or wilt against good (and mediocre) pitching. The Twins will need clutch hitting to win because they probably won’t score a bunch of runs despite their added weapons. The problem is they haven’t always been that clutch either. Justin Morneau is inexperienced and has cooled off in the latter part of the season. Jose Offerman is older then dirt and being counted on to deliver as a pitch hitter. The lineup is filled with players who have struggled in the postseason, such as Jacque Jones who has never batted over .200. If the bats go dry the Twins will lose no matter how dominating their starting pitching is.
The bullpen is not as deep as it appears
Joe Nathan has had an extraordinary season but the postseason brings with it new challenges. He may need to go two innings in some games, and there is no telling how he will respond. J.C. Romero has had a terrible final month to the season and has been shaky all year. If the Twins count on him to get a crucial out, the game may very well get out of hand in a hurry. Jesse Crain has looked good but has never been relied upon in a must-win major league situation. After Juan Rincon, the bullpen consists of Terry Muholland (who struggled as a reliever this year) and Kyle Lohse (who just plain struggled). The two of them might not matter, but then again, who would have expected Rick Reed to be called upon to get key outs in the 2003 ALDS? The group is inexperienced and capable of giving up a lead in a hard fought 2-1 ballgame, which is all it takes to turn a series.
The best part about the playoffs is anything can happen. Some stars disappear while others emerge. No-name players step up and become heros. It is a special kind of player who can excel in the postseason, and the Twins don’t know how many of these players they have yet. Sometimes it takes a couple of tries to make it to the World Series. The Twins are in a great position to do it this year, and for the first time in three playoff appearences, they are being taken seriously by both the national media and their opponents. Other teams do not want to play them, especially in a short series. On Tuesday the Twins will get to show what they are made of. There are reasons why they should win it all and reasons why they might stumble. It's up to the Twins to decide what path they will follow.
Thank you everyone for stopping by today and sticking with us for our first season of blogging for the Twins. We are very lucky to have a great team to follow and it has been a lot of fun, as well as a learning experience. As Ryan alluded to last week, tomorrow will be a big day for this and all other Twins blogs. We are very excited. We can’t let the cat out of the bag quite yet, but make sure you stop by (you might be surprised at how many others do too!). In the meantime, have a great Monday as the Twins prepare to open up in New York tomorrow. And don’t forget to read your morning paper! :)
Friday, October 01, 2004
Bonus Material: This is the Year
Hello and thanks for stopping by Twins Chatter this weekend. As you probably know, we don't usually post on weekends, but I just happened to have the following article readily available. As I probably mentioned last spring, I'm the sports editor for our modest St. Olaf school newspaper, and I often write our weekly opinion column. This week, I chose to write about my specialty, the Twins. Keep in mind that this was written for a wider and a less Twins-literate audience. Despite that, I think it's still a good read. Check back Monday morning when we'll know the Twins playoff opponent and have an original post. In the meantime, have a good weekend.
-Ryan
As baseball s regular season draws to a close this weekend, it is both a time to look both back and forward. From April through September, we witnessed innumerable walk-off homers, amazing defensive plays, masterful pitching performances and record-breaking hitting feats. It was truly a season to remember.
However, those 162 games were merely the appetizer for the main course that is to follow, namely October postseason baseball. For the third consecutive year, our hometown nine, the Minnesota Twins, will be vying for the coveted World Series trophy. The small-market Twins, whose 2004 payroll is roughly one fourth that of the behemoth New York Yankees, has suffered early playoff exits the past two seasons. However, I firmly believe that 2004 will be different. Mark my words: the Minnesota Twins will represent the American League in this year’s World Series.
How, you may be thinking, could you possibly back up that statement? What about the 100-win juggernaut that is the Yankees? What about the Boston Red Sox’s deadly combination of power pitching and power hitting? What about the Oakland Athletics’ quality quartet of starters? What about the fact that no Twin will drive in even 85 runs this year?
The answer to all those questions can be summed up with just three words: pitching, pitching, and pitching.
Despite some obvious offensive deficiencies, the Twins have the best pitching staff in the American League by a wide margin. It all begins with starting pitching, and the Twins have two of league’s best in Johan Santana and Brad Radke. Santana is a shoo-in to win this year’s American League Cy Young award, and his numbers since mid-June are simply mind-boggling: over his past 22 starts, Santana is 18-2 with a miniscule 1.36 ERA and an incredible 204 strikeouts.
Radke is no slouch either; his 3.48 ERA is the league s fifth-best and he leads the league in quality starts. Together, Santana and Radke form a one-two punch that will be tough to topple come October.
The Twins bullpen, seemingly decimated by two key free-agent defections this past winter, has been restocked and is better than ever. The team has five different pitchers who regularly top 95 mph on the radar gun, the most notable being closer Joe Nathan and his 43 saves. Nathan—along with fellow bullpen mates Juan Rincon, J.C. Romero, Grant Balfour, and Jesse Crain—comprises what is arguably the league’s best bullpen. If the Twins maintain a lead going into the late innings, these guys almost always keep it that way.
Even though it may lag far behind the team’s pitching in overall quality, the Twins offense is balanced and primed for postseason glory. Leftfielder Shannon Stewart is among the league s best lead-off men, and he sets the table for proven run producers Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, and Corey Koskie.
2004 has also seen the emergence of two new young stars: outfielder Lew Ford and first basemen Justin Morneau. Ford, a fan favorite in Minnesota, filled in for an injured Hunter back in April and has never stopped hitting, to the tune of a .302 batting average.
Morneau, whose enormous power potential allowed the team to trade disgruntled first basemen Doug Mientkiewicz in July, has been the long-ball threat this team has been sorely lacking in recent years. The burly slugger has hit 18 home runs since becoming an everyday player only two and a half months ago. At only 23 years of age, Morneau evokes memories of the franchise s last great power hitter, the legendary Harmon Killebrew.
Another reason why 2004 will be known as “the year of the Twin” is the numerous weakness that are to be found in their playoff competition. While the Yankees’ win-loss record looks good on paper, their paper-thin starting staff leaves much to be desired. The Red Sox are a team seemingly built for the postseason, but they will most likely open the playoffs at the Metrodome against Santana and the Twins, a tall order for any squad. The American League Western Division champion—whether it be the Athletics, Angels, or Rangers—is severely flawed in multiple areas, and can hardly be considered favorites no matter who they take on in the first round.
It is for all these reasons that I believe the Minnesota Twins will prevail in this fall s postseason dogfight. As the old saying goes, good pitching always beats good hitting. If you re a Twins fan, that’s one statement you can hang your hopes on this October.
Corey Koskie had a great game Friday, going 3-4 with a homer and 3 RBIs, as the Twins beat the Indians 4-3.
-Ryan
As baseball s regular season draws to a close this weekend, it is both a time to look both back and forward. From April through September, we witnessed innumerable walk-off homers, amazing defensive plays, masterful pitching performances and record-breaking hitting feats. It was truly a season to remember.
However, those 162 games were merely the appetizer for the main course that is to follow, namely October postseason baseball. For the third consecutive year, our hometown nine, the Minnesota Twins, will be vying for the coveted World Series trophy. The small-market Twins, whose 2004 payroll is roughly one fourth that of the behemoth New York Yankees, has suffered early playoff exits the past two seasons. However, I firmly believe that 2004 will be different. Mark my words: the Minnesota Twins will represent the American League in this year’s World Series.
How, you may be thinking, could you possibly back up that statement? What about the 100-win juggernaut that is the Yankees? What about the Boston Red Sox’s deadly combination of power pitching and power hitting? What about the Oakland Athletics’ quality quartet of starters? What about the fact that no Twin will drive in even 85 runs this year?
The answer to all those questions can be summed up with just three words: pitching, pitching, and pitching.
Despite some obvious offensive deficiencies, the Twins have the best pitching staff in the American League by a wide margin. It all begins with starting pitching, and the Twins have two of league’s best in Johan Santana and Brad Radke. Santana is a shoo-in to win this year’s American League Cy Young award, and his numbers since mid-June are simply mind-boggling: over his past 22 starts, Santana is 18-2 with a miniscule 1.36 ERA and an incredible 204 strikeouts.
Radke is no slouch either; his 3.48 ERA is the league s fifth-best and he leads the league in quality starts. Together, Santana and Radke form a one-two punch that will be tough to topple come October.
The Twins bullpen, seemingly decimated by two key free-agent defections this past winter, has been restocked and is better than ever. The team has five different pitchers who regularly top 95 mph on the radar gun, the most notable being closer Joe Nathan and his 43 saves. Nathan—along with fellow bullpen mates Juan Rincon, J.C. Romero, Grant Balfour, and Jesse Crain—comprises what is arguably the league’s best bullpen. If the Twins maintain a lead going into the late innings, these guys almost always keep it that way.
Even though it may lag far behind the team’s pitching in overall quality, the Twins offense is balanced and primed for postseason glory. Leftfielder Shannon Stewart is among the league s best lead-off men, and he sets the table for proven run producers Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, and Corey Koskie.
2004 has also seen the emergence of two new young stars: outfielder Lew Ford and first basemen Justin Morneau. Ford, a fan favorite in Minnesota, filled in for an injured Hunter back in April and has never stopped hitting, to the tune of a .302 batting average.
Morneau, whose enormous power potential allowed the team to trade disgruntled first basemen Doug Mientkiewicz in July, has been the long-ball threat this team has been sorely lacking in recent years. The burly slugger has hit 18 home runs since becoming an everyday player only two and a half months ago. At only 23 years of age, Morneau evokes memories of the franchise s last great power hitter, the legendary Harmon Killebrew.
Another reason why 2004 will be known as “the year of the Twin” is the numerous weakness that are to be found in their playoff competition. While the Yankees’ win-loss record looks good on paper, their paper-thin starting staff leaves much to be desired. The Red Sox are a team seemingly built for the postseason, but they will most likely open the playoffs at the Metrodome against Santana and the Twins, a tall order for any squad. The American League Western Division champion—whether it be the Athletics, Angels, or Rangers—is severely flawed in multiple areas, and can hardly be considered favorites no matter who they take on in the first round.
It is for all these reasons that I believe the Minnesota Twins will prevail in this fall s postseason dogfight. As the old saying goes, good pitching always beats good hitting. If you re a Twins fan, that’s one statement you can hang your hopes on this October.
Corey Koskie had a great game Friday, going 3-4 with a homer and 3 RBIs, as the Twins beat the Indians 4-3.
Divisional Déjà vu?
Yesterday’s 6-4 loss to those damn New York Yankees was the most pivotal game our Twins have played in the past 10 days, and it was extremely disappointing on many different levels. Let me count the ways:
1. Three different Twins pitchers blew three different leads: Radke blew a two-run lead in the fourth, J.C. Romero blew a one-run lead for Radke (again) in the sixth, and Grant Balfour blew another one-run lead in the seventh. Except for Juan Rincon (who threw two impressive hitless innings) the Twins bullpen has looked very vulnerable the last few games, which is definitely not a good sign going into next week. Romero in particular is a troubling case, as he allowed yet another home run to a lefty, which will absolutely KILL you in Yankee Stadium.
2. Despite pitching pretty well, Brad Radke was unable to earn his elusive 12th win of the season and must instead settle for a record of 11-8. I know wins and losses aren’t everything, but doesn’t a guy who finishes the regular season with the league’s 5th best ERA deserve far more than 11 wins, especially in this offensive era? The only positive is that it might keep his free agent asking price down this winter…
3. Most importantly, yesterday’s loss means that the Twins no longer control their own fate as it pertains to home field advantage in the ALDS. Oakland, Anaheim, and the Twins now have identical 90-69 records, and the Twins do not own the tiebreaker (head-to-head record) with either team. That means in order to avoid traveling to the Bronx once again this year, the Twins must sweep the Indians this week and hope neither Oakland nor Anaheim sweeps each other. Up until yesterday, I was fairly optimistic that the Twins would gain home field, but now it seems an unlikely possibility. The fact that the team was the Yankees who swept the Twins doesn’t help either; the Bombers are cocky enough as it is and don’t need any more reassurance of their perceived superiority.
Bullpen Blues
Here are some alarming stats for you to chew on: in his eight appearance since his team-record scoreless streak ended on September 12, J.C. Romero has thrown 6 1/3 innings, allowed 12 runs (9 earned), 12 hits, walked 8 batters, and has surrendered 3 home runs (one each his past three outings). In that span his ERA has risen a solid 2.59 to a mediocre 3.48. Those numbers, frankly, are amazingly bad and cause for extreme concern for Gardenhire and the Twins. We all know how fragile J.C.’s psyche is, and it has been well documented that mental barriers have been a huge part of his struggles over the past two years. You could plainly see Romero’s frustration as he left the mound last night (you could also read it on his lips), which is a bad, bad sign.
However, what is to be done? The postseason begins next Tuesday, and there is no room for head cases come October. J.C. is an extremely talented pitcher with great stuff, but can he be trusted to regain his composure without another wake-up call back in AAA? Obviously Rochester isn’t an option at this point, which makes the timing of J.C.’s current meltdown extremely inconvenient. Can Gardy safely use J.C. in the playoffs? Or should other options (like Crain or Mulholland) be explored? There is no doubt that it is imperative Gardy send J.C. out there once or twice against the Indians this weekend, because right now I have no confidence in his abilities. LaVelle E. Neal is reporting that AAA pitching coach Bobby Cuellar is going to work with J.C. this weekend. Hopefully something clicks, because this team will be hurting without its key lefty in the ‘pen next week.
That’s all the Twins Chattering I’ve got for you all today. Yesterday, I hinted that today would be a monumental day, but I was mistaken. That monumental event has been moved to Tuesday, which promises to be a fine day indeed. I will also have a little bonus material posted here for Saturday, so you are all invited to stop by and check that out as well. Have a good one.
-Ryan M.
twinsfan21@msn.com
Playoff Perspectives
Twins lost 6-4 to the Yankees, who have clinched the AL East outright. The Twins are now 90-69 and tied for the second-best record among AL division leaders.
Oakland defeated Seattle 3-2 on a 9th inning Bobby Crosby home run. The Athletics moved into a first place tie with…
Anaheim, who lost to Texas 6-3. The A’s and Angels are both 90-69. The two teams will play each other for three games this weekend, with the winner of the series taking the AL West crown. If either team sweeps, they will also have home field advantage in the ALDS.
Boston did not play but is assured the AL Wild Card.
National League
Los Angeles defeated Colorado 4-2 in 11 innings. They are 3 GA of San Francisco in the NL West. Their magic number is 1 as they host the Giants this weekend for three games.
San Francisco beat San Diego 4-1. The Giants are 3 GB Los Angeles in the NL West and tied for the Wild Card tie with Houston.
Note – Jerome Williams, pitching for the first time in 2 months, threw 7 strong innings.
Houston did not play, remains tied with SF for Wild Card. They host Colorado this weekend.
Chicago lost their third straight game to Cincinnati 2-1 in 12 innings. The Cubs are 1 GB Houston and San Francisco in the Wild Card race.
Note – Mark Prior threw his best game of the season, 9 IP w/1 ER, in the losing effort.
1. Three different Twins pitchers blew three different leads: Radke blew a two-run lead in the fourth, J.C. Romero blew a one-run lead for Radke (again) in the sixth, and Grant Balfour blew another one-run lead in the seventh. Except for Juan Rincon (who threw two impressive hitless innings) the Twins bullpen has looked very vulnerable the last few games, which is definitely not a good sign going into next week. Romero in particular is a troubling case, as he allowed yet another home run to a lefty, which will absolutely KILL you in Yankee Stadium.
2. Despite pitching pretty well, Brad Radke was unable to earn his elusive 12th win of the season and must instead settle for a record of 11-8. I know wins and losses aren’t everything, but doesn’t a guy who finishes the regular season with the league’s 5th best ERA deserve far more than 11 wins, especially in this offensive era? The only positive is that it might keep his free agent asking price down this winter…
3. Most importantly, yesterday’s loss means that the Twins no longer control their own fate as it pertains to home field advantage in the ALDS. Oakland, Anaheim, and the Twins now have identical 90-69 records, and the Twins do not own the tiebreaker (head-to-head record) with either team. That means in order to avoid traveling to the Bronx once again this year, the Twins must sweep the Indians this week and hope neither Oakland nor Anaheim sweeps each other. Up until yesterday, I was fairly optimistic that the Twins would gain home field, but now it seems an unlikely possibility. The fact that the team was the Yankees who swept the Twins doesn’t help either; the Bombers are cocky enough as it is and don’t need any more reassurance of their perceived superiority.
Bullpen Blues
Here are some alarming stats for you to chew on: in his eight appearance since his team-record scoreless streak ended on September 12, J.C. Romero has thrown 6 1/3 innings, allowed 12 runs (9 earned), 12 hits, walked 8 batters, and has surrendered 3 home runs (one each his past three outings). In that span his ERA has risen a solid 2.59 to a mediocre 3.48. Those numbers, frankly, are amazingly bad and cause for extreme concern for Gardenhire and the Twins. We all know how fragile J.C.’s psyche is, and it has been well documented that mental barriers have been a huge part of his struggles over the past two years. You could plainly see Romero’s frustration as he left the mound last night (you could also read it on his lips), which is a bad, bad sign.
However, what is to be done? The postseason begins next Tuesday, and there is no room for head cases come October. J.C. is an extremely talented pitcher with great stuff, but can he be trusted to regain his composure without another wake-up call back in AAA? Obviously Rochester isn’t an option at this point, which makes the timing of J.C.’s current meltdown extremely inconvenient. Can Gardy safely use J.C. in the playoffs? Or should other options (like Crain or Mulholland) be explored? There is no doubt that it is imperative Gardy send J.C. out there once or twice against the Indians this weekend, because right now I have no confidence in his abilities. LaVelle E. Neal is reporting that AAA pitching coach Bobby Cuellar is going to work with J.C. this weekend. Hopefully something clicks, because this team will be hurting without its key lefty in the ‘pen next week.
That’s all the Twins Chattering I’ve got for you all today. Yesterday, I hinted that today would be a monumental day, but I was mistaken. That monumental event has been moved to Tuesday, which promises to be a fine day indeed. I will also have a little bonus material posted here for Saturday, so you are all invited to stop by and check that out as well. Have a good one.
-Ryan M.
twinsfan21@msn.com
Playoff PerspectivesTwins lost 6-4 to the Yankees, who have clinched the AL East outright. The Twins are now 90-69 and tied for the second-best record among AL division leaders.
Oakland defeated Seattle 3-2 on a 9th inning Bobby Crosby home run. The Athletics moved into a first place tie with…
Anaheim, who lost to Texas 6-3. The A’s and Angels are both 90-69. The two teams will play each other for three games this weekend, with the winner of the series taking the AL West crown. If either team sweeps, they will also have home field advantage in the ALDS.
Boston did not play but is assured the AL Wild Card.
National League
Los Angeles defeated Colorado 4-2 in 11 innings. They are 3 GA of San Francisco in the NL West. Their magic number is 1 as they host the Giants this weekend for three games.
San Francisco beat San Diego 4-1. The Giants are 3 GB Los Angeles in the NL West and tied for the Wild Card tie with Houston.
Note – Jerome Williams, pitching for the first time in 2 months, threw 7 strong innings.
Houston did not play, remains tied with SF for Wild Card. They host Colorado this weekend.
Chicago lost their third straight game to Cincinnati 2-1 in 12 innings. The Cubs are 1 GB Houston and San Francisco in the Wild Card race.
Note – Mark Prior threw his best game of the season, 9 IP w/1 ER, in the losing effort.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
Laying an Egg in the Bronx
I’ve decided to take a day off from our extended “Playoff Previews” feature to focus on a hodge-podge of current events a little. The 2004 Central champs were swept by the Yankees in yesterday’s doubleheader, losing 5-3 and 5-4. As the Geek points out today, may people out there will be quick to point to the possible repercussions of Tuesday’s 0-fer. First of all, it caused the team to lose its hold on home field advantage in the ALDS (the Angels won and are now tied with the Twins). Secondly, many pundits will claim that the Twins cannot win in Yankee Stadium, which is where they quite possibly will open the playoffs next week.
I would like to address both of those issues. I, for one, still firmly believe that the Twins will open at home in the ALDS. Anaheim is hot right now, yes, but Radke will take care of business tonight and the Twins will take two of three from the Indians this weekend. However, our home field hopes are indeed becoming questionable. However, don’t lose hope: the 1987 World Champions went 0-5 after clinching the division, yet still managed to turn it around in the ALCS.
A Streak is Broken
Johan Santana’s amazing streak of 12 consecutive starts with a win ended yesterday, thanks to J.C. Romero’s latest entry into his patented “implosion mode”. Ever since Game 5 of the 2002 ALCS, J.C. has been prone to the big inning, a highly undesirable trait for a reliever. Had Johan been allowed to pitch his normal seven or eight innings (which I’m not saying he should have), the Twins would have probably won the game.
In any event, today’s sweep, while disappointing, is pretty meaningless. Yeah, we’d like to stick it to the Yankees every chance we get, but the Twins played two competitive games today (more than we’ve been able say in previous meetings with the Yanks) and simply came out on the short end of the stick. Jason Kubel played extremely well, and Kyle Lohse did not. Hopefully today’s outing will officially eliminate Lohse from any consideration for a playoff start.
The Predictable Case of LaTroy Hawkins
Having watched LaTroy Hawkins pitch for the better part of nine seasons, we all know what he’s capable of. LaTroy struggled as a starter for so many years, yet the Twins kept giving him chances until he finally discovered himself in 2000. In 2001, he was anointed the team’s closer and almost single-handedly dashed the team’s playoff aspirations with his legendary meltdown in the second half of that year. The next two seasons, LaTroy was arguably the best setup man in the game, posting ERAs of 2.13 and 1.86. Despite the fact that he was grossly overpaid for many years by the Twins, LaTroy chose to make his contract negotiations (or lack thereof) a public issue last season, creating a noticeable distraction in the Twins’ clubhouse. This winter, he signed a 3-year, $12 million contract with the Cubs before the Twins could even make an offer.
Eventually, you knew the Cubs were going to play with fire. When closer Joe Borowski went down earlier this year, Hawkins became the closer by default. Twins fans everywhere knew the perils of this decision: LaTroy does not pitch well in the ninth inning for some reason. Thus far, Hawkins has not disappointed Twins fans in their assessment. He has blown 9 of 33 save opportunities this season, including three of his last five (last night being the latest). If the Cubs don’t make the playoffs, look for LaTroy to become the latest scapegoat on the South Side this winter.
That’s all I’ve got for today. I’m resting up tonight in preparation for a high-quality post tomorrow, which may end up being the biggest day in the history of this blog. Stay tuned, and don’t forget to check us out as you’re reading your morning paper…
-Ryan
twinsfan21@msn.com
Playoff Perspectives
The Twins were swept in a doubleheader by the Yankees, who’s magic number in the division is down to one.
Red Sox lost 9-4 to Tampa Bay, now 4 GB New York.
Anaheim beat Texas 8-7 in 11 innings to take the AL West division lead and tie the Twins in the race for home field advantage in the ALDS. The Rangers are 4 GB.
Oakland lost 4-2 to Seattle and is now 1 GB behind the Angels.
Note - Ichiro had a single and is now 2 hits shy of 257 with four games remaining.
National League
Chicago lost 4-3 to the Reds in 12 innings and is now .5 GB Houston for the NL Wild Card.
Note – Adam Dunn hit a game-winning double off LaTroy Hawkins to win the game.
Houston beat St. Louis 6-4, now leads in the NL Wild Card race.
San Francisco lost 4-3 to San Diego in 10 innings, fall .5 GB the Astros in the Wild Card and 3 GB the Dodgers in the NL West.
Note – The winning run scored on a sac fly when former Twin Dustan Mohr tripped over the bullpen mound while catching the ball.
I would like to address both of those issues. I, for one, still firmly believe that the Twins will open at home in the ALDS. Anaheim is hot right now, yes, but Radke will take care of business tonight and the Twins will take two of three from the Indians this weekend. However, our home field hopes are indeed becoming questionable. However, don’t lose hope: the 1987 World Champions went 0-5 after clinching the division, yet still managed to turn it around in the ALCS.
A Streak is Broken
Johan Santana’s amazing streak of 12 consecutive starts with a win ended yesterday, thanks to J.C. Romero’s latest entry into his patented “implosion mode”. Ever since Game 5 of the 2002 ALCS, J.C. has been prone to the big inning, a highly undesirable trait for a reliever. Had Johan been allowed to pitch his normal seven or eight innings (which I’m not saying he should have), the Twins would have probably won the game.
In any event, today’s sweep, while disappointing, is pretty meaningless. Yeah, we’d like to stick it to the Yankees every chance we get, but the Twins played two competitive games today (more than we’ve been able say in previous meetings with the Yanks) and simply came out on the short end of the stick. Jason Kubel played extremely well, and Kyle Lohse did not. Hopefully today’s outing will officially eliminate Lohse from any consideration for a playoff start.
The Predictable Case of LaTroy Hawkins
Having watched LaTroy Hawkins pitch for the better part of nine seasons, we all know what he’s capable of. LaTroy struggled as a starter for so many years, yet the Twins kept giving him chances until he finally discovered himself in 2000. In 2001, he was anointed the team’s closer and almost single-handedly dashed the team’s playoff aspirations with his legendary meltdown in the second half of that year. The next two seasons, LaTroy was arguably the best setup man in the game, posting ERAs of 2.13 and 1.86. Despite the fact that he was grossly overpaid for many years by the Twins, LaTroy chose to make his contract negotiations (or lack thereof) a public issue last season, creating a noticeable distraction in the Twins’ clubhouse. This winter, he signed a 3-year, $12 million contract with the Cubs before the Twins could even make an offer.
Eventually, you knew the Cubs were going to play with fire. When closer Joe Borowski went down earlier this year, Hawkins became the closer by default. Twins fans everywhere knew the perils of this decision: LaTroy does not pitch well in the ninth inning for some reason. Thus far, Hawkins has not disappointed Twins fans in their assessment. He has blown 9 of 33 save opportunities this season, including three of his last five (last night being the latest). If the Cubs don’t make the playoffs, look for LaTroy to become the latest scapegoat on the South Side this winter.
That’s all I’ve got for today. I’m resting up tonight in preparation for a high-quality post tomorrow, which may end up being the biggest day in the history of this blog. Stay tuned, and don’t forget to check us out as you’re reading your morning paper…
-Ryan
twinsfan21@msn.com
Playoff PerspectivesThe Twins were swept in a doubleheader by the Yankees, who’s magic number in the division is down to one.
Red Sox lost 9-4 to Tampa Bay, now 4 GB New York.
Anaheim beat Texas 8-7 in 11 innings to take the AL West division lead and tie the Twins in the race for home field advantage in the ALDS. The Rangers are 4 GB.
Oakland lost 4-2 to Seattle and is now 1 GB behind the Angels.
Note - Ichiro had a single and is now 2 hits shy of 257 with four games remaining.
National League
Chicago lost 4-3 to the Reds in 12 innings and is now .5 GB Houston for the NL Wild Card.
Note – Adam Dunn hit a game-winning double off LaTroy Hawkins to win the game.
Houston beat St. Louis 6-4, now leads in the NL Wild Card race.
San Francisco lost 4-3 to San Diego in 10 innings, fall .5 GB the Astros in the Wild Card and 3 GB the Dodgers in the NL West.
Note – The winning run scored on a sac fly when former Twin Dustan Mohr tripped over the bullpen mound while catching the ball.
Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Playoff Previews: Why This Could be the Year, Part II
Yesterday we took a look at how this year’s hitters stack up against the teams from the past two postseasons. Today we will cover the pitching half of the equation. In the playoffs, the game is elevated to a new level. A dominant pitching performance can still come up short, and it is important to have as much depth as possible. For the first time in years, the Twins have a legitimate playoff number one starter in Johan Santana. They have a power bullpen. They have a pitcher to compliment Santana in Brad Radke, one who won't let down in game two. All of this is reason to get excited for the Twins' chances. Below we take a closer look at how they compare to previous years.
Number One Starter
One of the Twins biggest problems going into the 2002 playoffs was a lack of playoff pitching experience. At the time there was actually a debate of whether Brad Radke or Rick Reed should start game one. Reed was coming off a pretty good year in which he went 15-7 with a 3.78 ERA. In the end Brad Radke was given the nod in game one and he did not disappoint, going 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA in the playoffs. He overcame the Twins' early jitters and beat Oakland twice. Last year the number one was Johan Santana, who pitched great in the second half after coming out of the bullpen. He started well against the Yankees but his final line was 6 runs in two starts, totaling 7.2 innings. This year, Santana taken his game to another level and has had arguably one of the most dominate second halves in baseball history. He has been in his starting role for a season and a half and has not backed down in any of his big games this year. He is now a legitimate ace, one who strikes fear in the hearts of any possible playoff opponents. Curt Schilling is the only other pitcher who will be able to match up with him if he is in his regular season form. Now, all he needs to do is go out and prove he can carry it into the second season.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Santana will carry his dominance into the playoffs but will need to give the Twins a win every time out.
Number Two Starter
Rick Reed was the man going into the 2002 playoffs and gave up 8 runs in just 10.1 innings. His playoff experience meant nothing as the Twins lost both his starts. Brad Radke continued his playoff success in 2003 by keeping the Twins in the game that he pitched, giving up 2 runs in 6.1 innings. Radke was a solid regular season pitcher last year with 14 wins and a 4.49 ERA. This year, he is having one of his best seasons. His ERA is almost a full run lower and he has been consistent all year. He gives the Twins a second starter who can match up with anyone. It still might be hard for him to improve his numbers from the last 2 years.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Radke may need to win every game he pitches for the Twins to win the World Series but he seems to be especially up to the task this year.
Third and Fourth Starters
Both Eric Milton and Joe Mays had been injured in either 2002 or 2003. Milton won his start against Oakland and pitched well in the ALCS in '02. Mays had been terrible for most of the year and struggled in the ALDS. He pitched a spectacular game one against Anaheim and won the only game in that series for the Twins. Against the Yankees, the Twins only needed a third starter. Kyle Lohse gave up a disappointing 3 runs in 5 innings. He had won 14 games with a 4.61 ERA in 2003. This year, the Twins third starter is Carlos Silva. Silva has finished strong nailing down his spot. He was not a starter before this year; he gives up a lot of hits and uses his sinker to induce double plays and get out of trouble. When compared to the rest of the third starters in these playoffs his 14 wins and 4.16 ERA are pretty darn good. Terry Muholland has come out of the 'pen to keep the Twins in most of the games he starts. However, he probably won't be needed unless the team goes deep into the playoffs. He is a wily veteran and capable of getting the Twins five solid innings before handing it over to the bullpen in addition to contributing in long relief.
Edge - Previous Teams - In 2002 the Twins had more starters capable of pitching well; for now it is wait and see how Silva fairs.
Closer
Eddie Guardado was not particularly dominating in the 2002 or 2003 playoffs. In both years he had an ERA over 9, and we all remember Mark Ellis' famous blast in game five of the ALDS. He did record 3 saves in his outings while not losing a game for the Twins. Joe Nathan has been much more dominant than Guardado this year. He is more of a power pitcher and strikes out 10.70 guys per 9 innings.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Nathan shuts the door on the 9th innings and maybe even the 8th if they need him to.
Lefthanded Setup
The Twins had a great 1-2 punch of JC Romero and Johan Santana going into the 2002 playoffs. Both pitchers struggled, posting ERAs over 8 after dominating in the regular season. Much of this was blamed on overuse during the season. Last year Romero was back and didn't allow a run in 3.1 innings after struggling during the regular season. This year, Romero has been up and down but has an impressive 3.04 ERA and over 8 K per 9 innings. He has pitched close to where he was during his dominant 2002 season. He will be counted on to get big outs but has struggled at times in those situations. He is a wild card going into theplayoffs.
Edge - Previous teams - It is hard to trust Romero with a lead and so the big outs will have to come from the hard throwing righties.
Righthanded Setup
LaTroy Hawkins was a great pitcher in 2002 but struggled in the playoffs somewhat. Last year he dominated the Yankees in game one, but they were able to get him later in the series. Juan Rincon has replaced him in the bullpen and had an outstanding year with 11 wins, a 2.67 ERA and 11.47 K/9. Rincon strikes out more batters than Hawkins but at times has looked worn down throughout the year.
Edge – Even - Rincon should be able to improve on Hawkins' postseason numbers and hopefully make it a 6-7 inning game.
The Rest of the Bunch
In 2002 the Twins relied mostly on their big 3 with Mike Jackson and Tony Fiorie struggling in their appearances. Last year, Rincon pitched well, giving up no runs in 2.1 innings. The regular season starters also pitched some good innings in relief for the team. This year the Twins have more depth. They can throw Jesse Crain and Grant Balfour at teams and then come back with Joe Roa when they need someone to eat some innings. Crain has a chance to be the K-Rod of this year's playoffs. He has pitched 22.1 innings and given up just 6 ER.
Edge - 2004 Twins - The Twins have a bullpen with the ability to shrink a game and dominate should a starter have to leave early.
(Note yesterday we forgot to include a comparison of the bench players so we will slip it in here)
Bench
The Twins had a decent bench in 2002 with Dustan Mohr, Matt LeCroy, Bobby Kielty and Denny Hocking. Mohr and LeCroy even started games for the Twins, while Kielty was probably their best pitch hitter. What they lacked was experience. The same goes for last year, evidenced by the fact that Mike Ryan was the best option to pitch hit against Roger Clemons in a crucial situation. The Twins believe they have fixed that this year with the addition of Jose Offerman. Offerman has already had some big hits off the bench this year and will probably be joined by Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Matt LeCroy and Augie Ojeda. That group includes more potential than in past years.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Offerman has stayed on the roster all year for this one purpose; Kubel and LeCroy give Gardenhire flexibility.
The Twins are legitimately a better team then they have been. They have more weapons on top of that added experience. Johan Santana scares other teams and then the Twins get to follow him with Brad Radke, a proven playoff commodity. If they make it to the late innings with the lead, Juan Rincon and Joe Nathan should shut the door. This doesn’t mean the Twins are going to win it all, but it gives them a chance. They are no longer the new kids on the block and seemed poised to go further then they have before. Only the Yankees, Red Sox, and possibly St. Louis stand in their way.
Playoff Perspectives
Boston won 10-8 over Tampa Bay to go 95-62 and move to 2.5 GB the Yankees.
Twins and Yankees rained out, doubleheader today starting at 3 p.m.
Notes – “El Duque” Hernandez is expierencing a tired arm but should be able to pitch later in the week.
Anaheim beat Texas 8-2 to go 89-68, now tied for the lead in the West.
Oakland lost 7-2 to Seattle to go 89-68, tied for the lead in the West.
Notes – Tim Hudson allowed 7 runs in 6 innings, Ichiro collected two hits and is only 3 from 257.
National League
Atlanta won 5-2 and lost 2-1 to the Mets in a doubleheader to go 93-65.
Chicago lost 8-3 to Cincinnati to go 88-69, .5 GA in the Wild Card.
Houston beat St. Louis 2-1 to go 88-70, .5 GB in the WC.
San Francisco won 7-5 over San Diego to go 87-69, .5 GB in the WC.
Los Angeles won 5-4 over Colorado to go 91-66, 3 GA in the West.
Number One Starter
One of the Twins biggest problems going into the 2002 playoffs was a lack of playoff pitching experience. At the time there was actually a debate of whether Brad Radke or Rick Reed should start game one. Reed was coming off a pretty good year in which he went 15-7 with a 3.78 ERA. In the end Brad Radke was given the nod in game one and he did not disappoint, going 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA in the playoffs. He overcame the Twins' early jitters and beat Oakland twice. Last year the number one was Johan Santana, who pitched great in the second half after coming out of the bullpen. He started well against the Yankees but his final line was 6 runs in two starts, totaling 7.2 innings. This year, Santana taken his game to another level and has had arguably one of the most dominate second halves in baseball history. He has been in his starting role for a season and a half and has not backed down in any of his big games this year. He is now a legitimate ace, one who strikes fear in the hearts of any possible playoff opponents. Curt Schilling is the only other pitcher who will be able to match up with him if he is in his regular season form. Now, all he needs to do is go out and prove he can carry it into the second season.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Santana will carry his dominance into the playoffs but will need to give the Twins a win every time out.
Number Two Starter
Rick Reed was the man going into the 2002 playoffs and gave up 8 runs in just 10.1 innings. His playoff experience meant nothing as the Twins lost both his starts. Brad Radke continued his playoff success in 2003 by keeping the Twins in the game that he pitched, giving up 2 runs in 6.1 innings. Radke was a solid regular season pitcher last year with 14 wins and a 4.49 ERA. This year, he is having one of his best seasons. His ERA is almost a full run lower and he has been consistent all year. He gives the Twins a second starter who can match up with anyone. It still might be hard for him to improve his numbers from the last 2 years.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Radke may need to win every game he pitches for the Twins to win the World Series but he seems to be especially up to the task this year.
Third and Fourth Starters
Both Eric Milton and Joe Mays had been injured in either 2002 or 2003. Milton won his start against Oakland and pitched well in the ALCS in '02. Mays had been terrible for most of the year and struggled in the ALDS. He pitched a spectacular game one against Anaheim and won the only game in that series for the Twins. Against the Yankees, the Twins only needed a third starter. Kyle Lohse gave up a disappointing 3 runs in 5 innings. He had won 14 games with a 4.61 ERA in 2003. This year, the Twins third starter is Carlos Silva. Silva has finished strong nailing down his spot. He was not a starter before this year; he gives up a lot of hits and uses his sinker to induce double plays and get out of trouble. When compared to the rest of the third starters in these playoffs his 14 wins and 4.16 ERA are pretty darn good. Terry Muholland has come out of the 'pen to keep the Twins in most of the games he starts. However, he probably won't be needed unless the team goes deep into the playoffs. He is a wily veteran and capable of getting the Twins five solid innings before handing it over to the bullpen in addition to contributing in long relief.
Edge - Previous Teams - In 2002 the Twins had more starters capable of pitching well; for now it is wait and see how Silva fairs.
Closer
Eddie Guardado was not particularly dominating in the 2002 or 2003 playoffs. In both years he had an ERA over 9, and we all remember Mark Ellis' famous blast in game five of the ALDS. He did record 3 saves in his outings while not losing a game for the Twins. Joe Nathan has been much more dominant than Guardado this year. He is more of a power pitcher and strikes out 10.70 guys per 9 innings.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Nathan shuts the door on the 9th innings and maybe even the 8th if they need him to.
Lefthanded Setup
The Twins had a great 1-2 punch of JC Romero and Johan Santana going into the 2002 playoffs. Both pitchers struggled, posting ERAs over 8 after dominating in the regular season. Much of this was blamed on overuse during the season. Last year Romero was back and didn't allow a run in 3.1 innings after struggling during the regular season. This year, Romero has been up and down but has an impressive 3.04 ERA and over 8 K per 9 innings. He has pitched close to where he was during his dominant 2002 season. He will be counted on to get big outs but has struggled at times in those situations. He is a wild card going into theplayoffs.
Edge - Previous teams - It is hard to trust Romero with a lead and so the big outs will have to come from the hard throwing righties.
Righthanded Setup
LaTroy Hawkins was a great pitcher in 2002 but struggled in the playoffs somewhat. Last year he dominated the Yankees in game one, but they were able to get him later in the series. Juan Rincon has replaced him in the bullpen and had an outstanding year with 11 wins, a 2.67 ERA and 11.47 K/9. Rincon strikes out more batters than Hawkins but at times has looked worn down throughout the year.
Edge – Even - Rincon should be able to improve on Hawkins' postseason numbers and hopefully make it a 6-7 inning game.
The Rest of the Bunch
In 2002 the Twins relied mostly on their big 3 with Mike Jackson and Tony Fiorie struggling in their appearances. Last year, Rincon pitched well, giving up no runs in 2.1 innings. The regular season starters also pitched some good innings in relief for the team. This year the Twins have more depth. They can throw Jesse Crain and Grant Balfour at teams and then come back with Joe Roa when they need someone to eat some innings. Crain has a chance to be the K-Rod of this year's playoffs. He has pitched 22.1 innings and given up just 6 ER.
Edge - 2004 Twins - The Twins have a bullpen with the ability to shrink a game and dominate should a starter have to leave early.
(Note yesterday we forgot to include a comparison of the bench players so we will slip it in here)
Bench
The Twins had a decent bench in 2002 with Dustan Mohr, Matt LeCroy, Bobby Kielty and Denny Hocking. Mohr and LeCroy even started games for the Twins, while Kielty was probably their best pitch hitter. What they lacked was experience. The same goes for last year, evidenced by the fact that Mike Ryan was the best option to pitch hit against Roger Clemons in a crucial situation. The Twins believe they have fixed that this year with the addition of Jose Offerman. Offerman has already had some big hits off the bench this year and will probably be joined by Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Matt LeCroy and Augie Ojeda. That group includes more potential than in past years.
Edge - 2004 Twins - Offerman has stayed on the roster all year for this one purpose; Kubel and LeCroy give Gardenhire flexibility.
The Twins are legitimately a better team then they have been. They have more weapons on top of that added experience. Johan Santana scares other teams and then the Twins get to follow him with Brad Radke, a proven playoff commodity. If they make it to the late innings with the lead, Juan Rincon and Joe Nathan should shut the door. This doesn’t mean the Twins are going to win it all, but it gives them a chance. They are no longer the new kids on the block and seemed poised to go further then they have before. Only the Yankees, Red Sox, and possibly St. Louis stand in their way.
Playoff PerspectivesBoston won 10-8 over Tampa Bay to go 95-62 and move to 2.5 GB the Yankees.
Twins and Yankees rained out, doubleheader today starting at 3 p.m.
Notes – “El Duque” Hernandez is expierencing a tired arm but should be able to pitch later in the week.
Anaheim beat Texas 8-2 to go 89-68, now tied for the lead in the West.
Oakland lost 7-2 to Seattle to go 89-68, tied for the lead in the West.
Notes – Tim Hudson allowed 7 runs in 6 innings, Ichiro collected two hits and is only 3 from 257.
National League
Atlanta won 5-2 and lost 2-1 to the Mets in a doubleheader to go 93-65.
Chicago lost 8-3 to Cincinnati to go 88-69, .5 GA in the Wild Card.
Houston beat St. Louis 2-1 to go 88-70, .5 GB in the WC.
San Francisco won 7-5 over San Diego to go 87-69, .5 GB in the WC.
Los Angeles won 5-4 over Colorado to go 91-66, 3 GA in the West.
Monday, September 27, 2004
Playoff Previews: Why This Could Be the Year
The last two times the Twins made the playoffs they have failed to reach their ultimate goal of winning the World Series. They were favored to make it in 2002 but lost to the eventual champion Anaheim Angels. Then last year they had a meager performance against the Yankees and failed to advance past the first round. There is something different about this year’s team. They are playing with more purpose and in less awe of their own achievements. They have 2 big time pitchers for the first time and the kind of power bullpen that dominates in the playoffs. Their defense is at the high level the Twins have grown accustomed to. The real cause of the Twins playoff struggles has been their inability to score runs. This year the additions of Justin Morneau and Lew Ford and an entire lineup that has looked less intimidated could change that. Below is a comparison of this year’s position players and the last 2 playoff teams. For the most part we will use the outdated batting average as a measure of the player’s ability because it is easy to understand and work.
Catcher
The first 2 division winners were anchored by A.J Pierzynski at this position. A.J batted over .300 both years while providing a spark to the lineup. Joe Mauer was supposed to be his replacement but injuries have hampered his season and will almost certainly keep him out of the playoffs. Henry Blanco has struggled to bat over .200 but his defense is an upgrade over Pierzynski in the field. AJ batted .344 in his first playoffs but struggled to .231 last year.
Edge – Previous Years – This team could really use Joe Mauer but has played without him all year.
First Base
Doug Mientkiewicz was once considered the heart of the team. He now plays in Boston and has been replaced by Justin Morneau and his 18 homeruns. Justin is the powerful cleanup hitter this team has lacked in previous years and his defense is above average. Doug batted .263 with 6 RBI’s in 2002 but really struggled against the Yankees batting .133.
Edge – 2004 Twins – What Morneau gives up defensively he more then makes up for with his bat. His mere presence in the lineup forces teams to pitch differently.
Second Base
Comparing Luis Rivas to Michael Cuddyer/Luis Rivas. It is still unclear who the starting second baseman will be come October. Cuddyer filled in admirably while Rivas was hurt and is even playing better in the field. He is the better hitter of the two. Rivas came out strong when he returned from injury but is again hurting. Rivas will probably start if healthy. He batted .250 in 2002 and went 0-13 in last year’s playoffs.
Edge – 2004 Twins – Even if Rivas starts, he cannot possibly equal last year’s lack of output.
Third Base
Which Corey Koskie will we see? The one who Peter Gammons claimed was the heart and soul of the 2002 team or the one who has never hit over .205 in the playoffs. Koskie’s average is down this year .243 but his power numbers are up, 24 to 14 last year. He played a big part in turning the Twins season around when he homer'd in Cleveland in mid-August. He also was a big reason the Twins offense struggled the past two playoffs. He needs to be a solid, middle of the order, contributor this year.
Edge – 2004 Twins – With experience comes more production…we hope.
Shortstop
Cristian Guzman has been the Twins shortstop for all three Division Championships. His play has been slightly improved this year but he is still no where near the player he was in 2001. He hit .231 in the 2002 postseason and .154 in the '03 postseason. His numbers need to be closer 2004's .277 batting average if he is going to make an impact in the playoffs. This team doesn’t need his production but it would go a long way towards improving their postseason scoring. The one improvement he may have made is that his defense appears to be better this year than it was the past two.
Edge – Even
Leftfield
In 2002 Jacque Jones batted .175 in the playoffs. Last year Shannon Stewart batted .400 and was billed as a major reason the Twins made the playoffs. Stewart was not the reason the Twins didn’t hit last year. He will bring much of the same to this year’s second season. He sets the tone for the lineup and even contributed a big defense play in last season’s playoffs. This year his return to the lineup once again correlated with the Twins improved position in the standings.
Edge – Even
Centerfield
In no player has the increased maturity been more evident this year than Torii Hunter. Hunter bats in the middle of the order and has contributed as much as any Twin to the offense the last two years. In 2002 he scored 6 runs and hit 6 doubles. Last year he scored 3 of the 6 total runs the Twins had in the ALDS while batting over .400. This year he has sent a message that he wants to go further and that his team is ready to do it. He has played big in the biggest games with his charging into Jamie Burke being a defining point of the season. On top of that his defense remains stellar.
Edge – 2004 Twins - Fantastic numbers the last two years do not outweigh the drive going into this year’s playoffs. He may just be the key player for the Twins offensive fortunes.
Rightfield
Cuddyer and Dustan Mohr split time in the 2002 playoffs and both contributed offensively. Last year Jacque Jones was worse than in 2002 by hitting just .125. His defense should be improved this year with more time in right but his offensive struggles have now spread to the regular season. Right now he is mired in a slump and his average is at .256, well below his career mark of .285. He does have 24 homeruns. The big question is whether Jacque will start against lefties. Unless Ron Gardenhire has changed his philosophy, he probably will and that lowers the grade of this position further.
Edge – Previous teams
Designated Hitter
In 2002, it was a platoon of Matt LeCroy and David Ortiz. LeCroy batted .417 while Ortiz getting the bulk of the playing time hit .276, driving in 4. This was not the David Ortiz of today who is now hitting .297 with 40 homeruns and a .376 OBP. In 2002 the DH was again LeCroy who batted .091. There is no way Lew Ford will play worse then that this year. He is also more versatile and can give the outfielders a day off should the Twins begin to go deep into the postseason. Ford has a sweet short swing made for the playoffs and has hit .302 this year with a .388 OBP.
Edge – 2004 Twins – One of those guys who will not play scared.
The Twins are certainly posed to be a better offensive team than they were the last two postseasons. With the additions of Justin Morneau and Lew Ford they have more weapons than before. The only major loss was Pierzynski. The real question is whether another year of experience will be enough to put the Twins over the hump of their offensive woes. That will be determined in October but as it stands now this looks to be a more potent hitting team. Many people would point to the Twins big 2 starters and hard throwing bullpen as the biggest reason they stand a better chance this year. Tomorrow we will take a look at how the pitching compares. Mark Buerhle may have to make a couple of calls before it’s all over.
John
john.betzler@mnsu.edu
Playoff Perspectives
Catcher
The first 2 division winners were anchored by A.J Pierzynski at this position. A.J batted over .300 both years while providing a spark to the lineup. Joe Mauer was supposed to be his replacement but injuries have hampered his season and will almost certainly keep him out of the playoffs. Henry Blanco has struggled to bat over .200 but his defense is an upgrade over Pierzynski in the field. AJ batted .344 in his first playoffs but struggled to .231 last year.
Edge – Previous Years – This team could really use Joe Mauer but has played without him all year.
First Base
Doug Mientkiewicz was once considered the heart of the team. He now plays in Boston and has been replaced by Justin Morneau and his 18 homeruns. Justin is the powerful cleanup hitter this team has lacked in previous years and his defense is above average. Doug batted .263 with 6 RBI’s in 2002 but really struggled against the Yankees batting .133.
Edge – 2004 Twins – What Morneau gives up defensively he more then makes up for with his bat. His mere presence in the lineup forces teams to pitch differently.
Second Base
Comparing Luis Rivas to Michael Cuddyer/Luis Rivas. It is still unclear who the starting second baseman will be come October. Cuddyer filled in admirably while Rivas was hurt and is even playing better in the field. He is the better hitter of the two. Rivas came out strong when he returned from injury but is again hurting. Rivas will probably start if healthy. He batted .250 in 2002 and went 0-13 in last year’s playoffs.
Edge – 2004 Twins – Even if Rivas starts, he cannot possibly equal last year’s lack of output.
Third Base
Which Corey Koskie will we see? The one who Peter Gammons claimed was the heart and soul of the 2002 team or the one who has never hit over .205 in the playoffs. Koskie’s average is down this year .243 but his power numbers are up, 24 to 14 last year. He played a big part in turning the Twins season around when he homer'd in Cleveland in mid-August. He also was a big reason the Twins offense struggled the past two playoffs. He needs to be a solid, middle of the order, contributor this year.
Edge – 2004 Twins – With experience comes more production…we hope.
Shortstop
Cristian Guzman has been the Twins shortstop for all three Division Championships. His play has been slightly improved this year but he is still no where near the player he was in 2001. He hit .231 in the 2002 postseason and .154 in the '03 postseason. His numbers need to be closer 2004's .277 batting average if he is going to make an impact in the playoffs. This team doesn’t need his production but it would go a long way towards improving their postseason scoring. The one improvement he may have made is that his defense appears to be better this year than it was the past two.
Edge – Even
Leftfield
In 2002 Jacque Jones batted .175 in the playoffs. Last year Shannon Stewart batted .400 and was billed as a major reason the Twins made the playoffs. Stewart was not the reason the Twins didn’t hit last year. He will bring much of the same to this year’s second season. He sets the tone for the lineup and even contributed a big defense play in last season’s playoffs. This year his return to the lineup once again correlated with the Twins improved position in the standings.
Edge – Even
Centerfield
In no player has the increased maturity been more evident this year than Torii Hunter. Hunter bats in the middle of the order and has contributed as much as any Twin to the offense the last two years. In 2002 he scored 6 runs and hit 6 doubles. Last year he scored 3 of the 6 total runs the Twins had in the ALDS while batting over .400. This year he has sent a message that he wants to go further and that his team is ready to do it. He has played big in the biggest games with his charging into Jamie Burke being a defining point of the season. On top of that his defense remains stellar.
Edge – 2004 Twins - Fantastic numbers the last two years do not outweigh the drive going into this year’s playoffs. He may just be the key player for the Twins offensive fortunes.
Rightfield
Cuddyer and Dustan Mohr split time in the 2002 playoffs and both contributed offensively. Last year Jacque Jones was worse than in 2002 by hitting just .125. His defense should be improved this year with more time in right but his offensive struggles have now spread to the regular season. Right now he is mired in a slump and his average is at .256, well below his career mark of .285. He does have 24 homeruns. The big question is whether Jacque will start against lefties. Unless Ron Gardenhire has changed his philosophy, he probably will and that lowers the grade of this position further.
Edge – Previous teams
Designated Hitter
In 2002, it was a platoon of Matt LeCroy and David Ortiz. LeCroy batted .417 while Ortiz getting the bulk of the playing time hit .276, driving in 4. This was not the David Ortiz of today who is now hitting .297 with 40 homeruns and a .376 OBP. In 2002 the DH was again LeCroy who batted .091. There is no way Lew Ford will play worse then that this year. He is also more versatile and can give the outfielders a day off should the Twins begin to go deep into the postseason. Ford has a sweet short swing made for the playoffs and has hit .302 this year with a .388 OBP.
Edge – 2004 Twins – One of those guys who will not play scared.
The Twins are certainly posed to be a better offensive team than they were the last two postseasons. With the additions of Justin Morneau and Lew Ford they have more weapons than before. The only major loss was Pierzynski. The real question is whether another year of experience will be enough to put the Twins over the hump of their offensive woes. That will be determined in October but as it stands now this looks to be a more potent hitting team. Many people would point to the Twins big 2 starters and hard throwing bullpen as the biggest reason they stand a better chance this year. Tomorrow we will take a look at how the pitching compares. Mark Buerhle may have to make a couple of calls before it’s all over.
John
john.betzler@mnsu.edu
Playoff PerspectivesAnaheim won 5-3 over Texas to go 88-68, .5 GB in the West. Texas is 86-70, 2.5 GB.
Recap – Bartolo Colon pitched 8 innings giving up 3 R, 2 ER. Kenny Rogers missed out on his 18th win giving up 4 R in 7.1 innings. Vlad Guerrero homered in the top of the 2nd but Texas took the lead off a Kevin Mench 2 run homer in the 4th. The Angels came back with 1 in the 7th 2 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th to seal the win. Chone Figgins had 3 hits and 2 RBI for Anaheim. Twins killer, Troy Percival recorded his 31st save.
Notes – In what amounts to a stunning move the Angels suspended outfield Jose Guillen for the rest of the season including the playoffs. He was .294 with 27 HR and 104 RBI.
Boston beat Tampa Bay 7-3 to go 94-62, 3 GB.
Recap: Bronson Arroyo pitched 6.1 innings giving up 2 ER to get his 10th win of the season. The Red Sox scored all their runs on 4 home runs by Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek and David McCarty. Keith Foulke pitched a scoreless 9th.
Oakland won 6-5 over Seattle to go 89-67, 1 GA in the West. If the season ended today they would play New York.
New York DNP, they are 97-59.
Notes – Kevin Brown struggled in his bid to come back from a broken hand by giving up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning Sunday.
National League
Atlanta PPD, they are 92-64 and would play Chicago if the season endedtoday.
St. Louis lost 10-3 to Houston to go 103-53 if the season ended today they would play Los Angeles.
Chicago won 12-5 over Cincinnati to go 88-68, 1 GA in the Wild Card.
Houston won 10-3 over St. Louis to go 87-70, 1.5 GB in the Wild Card.
Los Angeles won 8-7 over Colorado to go 90-66, 3 GA in the West.
San Francisco DNP, 87-69, 1 GB in the Wild Card.
San Diego DNP, 85-71, 3 GB in the Wild Card.
Playoff Previews: The Picture Begins to Focus…Sorta
Before this weekend began, I was one of those who believed much of the American League’s playoff picture would be all but decided. Someone, I thought, would make a statement. The Yankees would sweep or take two of three from the Red Sox. The Athletics would finally right their ship and put away the Angels. The Twins would snap out of their doldrums and take three of four from the Indians, thereby securing home field advantage in the ALDS.
As is true with most of my premonitions, absolutely none of those things occurred.
The Red Sox battered a much-maligned Yankee staff Saturday and Sunday, outscoring the Bombers 23-9 in taking two of three. The Angels made a statement against Oakland, convincingly winning their weekend series with the A’s to move within a game of first. And our Twins managed to tread water while battling the late-season injury bug, splitting a four game series with the Tribe.
Right now, here is what the overall standings look like in the American League:
x=clinched playoff berth; y=clinched division
Just one quick glance will tell you exactly what we know for certain about the AL playoff picture: absolutely nothing. The Yankees could still conceivably finish second in the AL East; the Twins could easily still wind up with the third-best record among division champions; and either the Athletics, Angels, or Rangers could wind up as the AL West champion. The fact that all these possibilities still exist with only six or seven games to play in the regular season is truly amazing. Here are the four most likely playoff match-ups for the ALDS:
Scenario 1: Oak/Ana/Tex @ New York, Boston @ Minnesota
Scenario 2: Oak/Ana/Tex @ Boston, New York @ Minnesota
Scenario 3: Minnesota @ New York, Boston @ Oak/Ana/Tex
Scenario 4: Minnesota @ Boston, New York @ Oak/Ana/Tex
There are also two other mathematically possible scenarios (Ana/Oak/Tex @ NYY, Oak/Ana/Tex @ MN and Ana/Oak/Tex @ NYY, MN @ Oak/Ana/Tex) but they are all highly unlikely, given that the Athletics, Angels, and Rangers are 5, 6, and 7 games behind Boston respectively with only 7 to play.
All this mathematical posturing begs a few questions. Which one of these possibilities is most likely to occur? Which would favor the Twins the most? How the hell has Texas managed to stay in the race this long?
The short answers? One, One, and I have no idea.
Now, I know you didn’t come all the way to Twins Chatter to be satisfied with just one-word answers, so I will elaborate somewhat (at least on the first two questions). First of all, my guess is that the playoff picture will remain as it is now. The Athletics host the lowly Mariners for four games this week, and I suspect that the A’s, perhaps out of sheer desperation, will take care of business (although the M’s did take two of three from the Rangers this weekend). I’m predicting that Oakland takes three of four. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Angels will tango four times this week. The pitching match-ups do not grossly favor either team, so I’m going to go the safe route and predict a split. That would leave the A’s two games up on the Halos and three up on the Rangers, meaning the A’s would only have to win one game in their three-game set against Anaheim this weekend to take the division crown. Things could very easily pan out much differently, but that is what I’m envisioning.
As for our Twins, I’m going to go out on a limb here (albeit a very sturdy, conservative limb, complete with matching wooden hand rails) and say they finish the season 3-3 to finish 93-69 overall, an extremely respectable mark. Tomorrow’s Lohse vs. El Duque match-up isn’t particularly favorable, and the team has the double misfortune of facing Scott “I-pitch-like-Cy-Young-against-the-Twins-and-Scott-Elarton-against-everybody-else” Elarton and giving Terry Mulholland his final start of the season this weekend against Cleveland. 3-3 (or possibly 4-2) sounds about right to me, and it will probably give the Twins home-field advantage in the ALDS.
As for the Yankees-Red Sox, I’m thinking that this thing is probably decided. The Sox needed to sweep the Yankees this weekend to win the division, and they did not. The Twins are struggling with the injury bug a little bit, and I don’t think that they’re in a position to sweep the Yanks in the Stadium this week (although 2 of 3 is a definite possibility). Once the BoSox clinch a playoff berth, which will probably happen within the next couple days, I suspect they will rest some regulars and set up their rotation for the playoffs. I think it’s likely that both teams will finish the season right where they stand today.
So there you have it. Even though this weekend didn’t exactly solidify a ton of things in the push for playoff posturing, it did clarify a few things somewhat:
-The Yankees will win the East and the Red Sox the Wild Card
-The Twins aren’t going to totally collapse over the season’s final six games
-The AL West is still very much up for grabs, although the A’s hold a slight advantage
Be sure and check back here tomorrow, when we continue our “Playoff Previews” series. No doubt John will have some wise nuggets of wisdom to share with all of us, as he taps his vast reservoir of exquisite baseball knowledge. Take care, everyone.
-Ryan Maus
twinsfan21@msn.com
Playoff Perspectives
...will be taking the day off. Almost all of the information you would have found here is covered in today's post. This feature will be back tomorrow.
As is true with most of my premonitions, absolutely none of those things occurred.
The Red Sox battered a much-maligned Yankee staff Saturday and Sunday, outscoring the Bombers 23-9 in taking two of three. The Angels made a statement against Oakland, convincingly winning their weekend series with the A’s to move within a game of first. And our Twins managed to tread water while battling the late-season injury bug, splitting a four game series with the Tribe.
Right now, here is what the overall standings look like in the American League:
| TEAM | W | L | PCT. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| x-New York Yankees | 97 | 59 | .622 | -- |
| Boston Red Sox | 93 | 62 | .600 | 3.5 |
| y-Twins | 90 | 66 | .577 | 7 |
| Oakland Athletics | 88 | 67 | .568 | 8.5 |
| Anaheim Angels | 87 | 68 | .561 | 9.5 |
| Texas Rangers | 86 | 69 | .555 | 10.5 |
Just one quick glance will tell you exactly what we know for certain about the AL playoff picture: absolutely nothing. The Yankees could still conceivably finish second in the AL East; the Twins could easily still wind up with the third-best record among division champions; and either the Athletics, Angels, or Rangers could wind up as the AL West champion. The fact that all these possibilities still exist with only six or seven games to play in the regular season is truly amazing. Here are the four most likely playoff match-ups for the ALDS:
Scenario 1: Oak/Ana/Tex @ New York, Boston @ Minnesota
Scenario 2: Oak/Ana/Tex @ Boston, New York @ Minnesota
Scenario 3: Minnesota @ New York, Boston @ Oak/Ana/Tex
Scenario 4: Minnesota @ Boston, New York @ Oak/Ana/Tex
There are also two other mathematically possible scenarios (Ana/Oak/Tex @ NYY, Oak/Ana/Tex @ MN and Ana/Oak/Tex @ NYY, MN @ Oak/Ana/Tex) but they are all highly unlikely, given that the Athletics, Angels, and Rangers are 5, 6, and 7 games behind Boston respectively with only 7 to play.
All this mathematical posturing begs a few questions. Which one of these possibilities is most likely to occur? Which would favor the Twins the most? How the hell has Texas managed to stay in the race this long?
The short answers? One, One, and I have no idea.
Now, I know you didn’t come all the way to Twins Chatter to be satisfied with just one-word answers, so I will elaborate somewhat (at least on the first two questions). First of all, my guess is that the playoff picture will remain as it is now. The Athletics host the lowly Mariners for four games this week, and I suspect that the A’s, perhaps out of sheer desperation, will take care of business (although the M’s did take two of three from the Rangers this weekend). I’m predicting that Oakland takes three of four. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Angels will tango four times this week. The pitching match-ups do not grossly favor either team, so I’m going to go the safe route and predict a split. That would leave the A’s two games up on the Halos and three up on the Rangers, meaning the A’s would only have to win one game in their three-game set against Anaheim this weekend to take the division crown. Things could very easily pan out much differently, but that is what I’m envisioning.
As for our Twins, I’m going to go out on a limb here (albeit a very sturdy, conservative limb, complete with matching wooden hand rails) and say they finish the season 3-3 to finish 93-69 overall, an extremely respectable mark. Tomorrow’s Lohse vs. El Duque match-up isn’t particularly favorable, and the team has the double misfortune of facing Scott “I-pitch-like-Cy-Young-against-the-Twins-and-Scott-Elarton-against-everybody-else” Elarton and giving Terry Mulholland his final start of the season this weekend against Cleveland. 3-3 (or possibly 4-2) sounds about right to me, and it will probably give the Twins home-field advantage in the ALDS.
As for the Yankees-Red Sox, I’m thinking that this thing is probably decided. The Sox needed to sweep the Yankees this weekend to win the division, and they did not. The Twins are struggling with the injury bug a little bit, and I don’t think that they’re in a position to sweep the Yanks in the Stadium this week (although 2 of 3 is a definite possibility). Once the BoSox clinch a playoff berth, which will probably happen within the next couple days, I suspect they will rest some regulars and set up their rotation for the playoffs. I think it’s likely that both teams will finish the season right where they stand today.
So there you have it. Even though this weekend didn’t exactly solidify a ton of things in the push for playoff posturing, it did clarify a few things somewhat:
-The Yankees will win the East and the Red Sox the Wild Card
-The Twins aren’t going to totally collapse over the season’s final six games
-The AL West is still very much up for grabs, although the A’s hold a slight advantage
Be sure and check back here tomorrow, when we continue our “Playoff Previews” series. No doubt John will have some wise nuggets of wisdom to share with all of us, as he taps his vast reservoir of exquisite baseball knowledge. Take care, everyone.
-Ryan Maus
twinsfan21@msn.com
Playoff Perspectives...will be taking the day off. Almost all of the information you would have found here is covered in today's post. This feature will be back tomorrow.
Friday, September 24, 2004
TGIF, Johan Pitches Tonight!
We apologize for the lack of a new post today. We have an updated Playoff Perspectives as well as a preview of series to watch this weekend. JD Durbin lost his first major league start last night as the Twins really begin to give their younger players a chance. Durbin allowed 5 runs in 3 innings walking 4. Hopefully he can build on this start for next year and not worry about being nervous. Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman turned in a nice double play last night as Rivas continues to make his case to be the second baseman come playoff time. The Twins battled back all game but in the end it was too much for them to overcome their third straight loss since clinching the division.
That losing streak should turn around tonight with Johan Santana on the mound going for his 20th win. Every statistic on Johan going into this game is phenomenal. He is going for the team record for consecutive wins and he has pitched 30 scoreless innings. It would not be surprising if he gives up a few runs tomorrow night as a result but still gets the win. This streak is unbelievable especially if he carries it into the playoffs. Winning 20 will also cement the Cy Young Award for him as well.
Make sure and read Aaron Gleeman’s new article at the Hardball times. He compares the Yankees and Red Sox to determine which would be the better first round opponent for the Twins. He really does a good job of laying out the argument for both teams. Other then that, we hope you all have a great Friday and good weekend. There is a lot of good baseball yet to be played and the best time of year for fans is just around the corner. We are really starting to get spoiled around here with 3 straight years of postseason baseball.
Playoff Perspectives
New York won 7-3 over Tampa Bay to go 96-57, 4.5 GA in the East.
Notes – Jon Lieber pitched 7.1 innings giving up 3 runs in his bid for a playoff start.
Boston lost 9-7 to Baltimore leaving their record at 91-61, 4.5 GB
Oakland lost 5-4 to Texas, they are 87-65 2 GA in the West
Notes – Tim Hudson went 7 strong innings giving up 2 runs, Octavio Dotel blew the save giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th.
Texas won 5-4 over Oakland going 85-67 2 GB in the West
Anaheim DNP 85-67 2 GB
National League
St. Louis won 4-2 over Milwaukee to go 100-52.
Chicago won 6-3 over Pittsburgh to go 86-66, .5 GA for the Wild Card.
Atlanta lost 3-2 to Cincinnati to go 89-64.
Los Angeles won 9-6 over San Diego to go 87-65, 1.5 GA in the West
San Francisco lost 7-3 to Houston 86-67, 1.5 GB in the West and .5 GB in the Wild Card.
Notes – Jason Schmidt pitched 7.1 innings giving up 2 runs. Dustan Hermanson gave up 4 runs in a third of an inning to take the loss; Carlos Beltran had 3 hits for the Astros.
Houston won 7-3 over San Francisco to go 84-69, 2.5 GB in the Wild Card.
Weekend Preview :
NY Yankees At Boston
Friday – Mussina v. Martinez
Saturday – Vasquez v. Wakefield
Sunday – Loaiza v. Schilling
Chicago Cubs At NY Mets
Florida At Atlanta
Houston At Milwaukee
Seattle At Texas
Oakland At Anaheim
Friday – Harden v. Escobar
Saturday – TBA v. Washburn
Sunday – Mulder v. Lackey
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Friday – Perez v. Rueter
Saturday – Lima v. Hennessey
Sunday – Weaver v. Tomko
As you can see there are 3 very good series being played this weekend that could drastically change the playoff picture. Boston needs to sweep to keep their hopes of passing the Yankees. Oakland and Anaheim will spend the weekend beating up on each other while Texas hopes to take advantage and pass the both of them. San Francisco could catch Los Angeles in the West or end up falling behind in the Wild Card.
That losing streak should turn around tonight with Johan Santana on the mound going for his 20th win. Every statistic on Johan going into this game is phenomenal. He is going for the team record for consecutive wins and he has pitched 30 scoreless innings. It would not be surprising if he gives up a few runs tomorrow night as a result but still gets the win. This streak is unbelievable especially if he carries it into the playoffs. Winning 20 will also cement the Cy Young Award for him as well.
Make sure and read Aaron Gleeman’s new article at the Hardball times. He compares the Yankees and Red Sox to determine which would be the better first round opponent for the Twins. He really does a good job of laying out the argument for both teams. Other then that, we hope you all have a great Friday and good weekend. There is a lot of good baseball yet to be played and the best time of year for fans is just around the corner. We are really starting to get spoiled around here with 3 straight years of postseason baseball.
Playoff PerspectivesNew York won 7-3 over Tampa Bay to go 96-57, 4.5 GA in the East.
Notes – Jon Lieber pitched 7.1 innings giving up 3 runs in his bid for a playoff start.
Boston lost 9-7 to Baltimore leaving their record at 91-61, 4.5 GB
Oakland lost 5-4 to Texas, they are 87-65 2 GA in the West
Notes – Tim Hudson went 7 strong innings giving up 2 runs, Octavio Dotel blew the save giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th.
Texas won 5-4 over Oakland going 85-67 2 GB in the West
Anaheim DNP 85-67 2 GB
National League
St. Louis won 4-2 over Milwaukee to go 100-52.
Chicago won 6-3 over Pittsburgh to go 86-66, .5 GA for the Wild Card.
Atlanta lost 3-2 to Cincinnati to go 89-64.
Los Angeles won 9-6 over San Diego to go 87-65, 1.5 GA in the West
San Francisco lost 7-3 to Houston 86-67, 1.5 GB in the West and .5 GB in the Wild Card.
Notes – Jason Schmidt pitched 7.1 innings giving up 2 runs. Dustan Hermanson gave up 4 runs in a third of an inning to take the loss; Carlos Beltran had 3 hits for the Astros.
Houston won 7-3 over San Francisco to go 84-69, 2.5 GB in the Wild Card.
Weekend Preview :
NY Yankees At Boston
Friday – Mussina v. Martinez
Saturday – Vasquez v. Wakefield
Sunday – Loaiza v. Schilling
Chicago Cubs At NY Mets
Florida At Atlanta
Houston At Milwaukee
Seattle At Texas
Oakland At Anaheim
Friday – Harden v. Escobar
Saturday – TBA v. Washburn
Sunday – Mulder v. Lackey
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Friday – Perez v. Rueter
Saturday – Lima v. Hennessey
Sunday – Weaver v. Tomko
As you can see there are 3 very good series being played this weekend that could drastically change the playoff picture. Boston needs to sweep to keep their hopes of passing the Yankees. Oakland and Anaheim will spend the weekend beating up on each other while Texas hopes to take advantage and pass the both of them. San Francisco could catch Los Angeles in the West or end up falling behind in the Wild Card.
John
Thursday, September 23, 2004
Playoff Previews: (Ro)star Wars
Some of you probably stopped by your nearest retailer yesterday and picked up your copy of the “Star Wars” DVDs (I know I sure did), but there is possibly a similar battle raging in the Twins front office regarding the playoff roster. Technically, playoff rosters were “set” on August 31, but as we all know, there are exceptions to every rule. Injuries to Nick Punto, Joe Mauer, and Joe Mays technically give the Twins three roster spots to play around with before the postseason begins on October 5 (more if they put someone like Balfour on the DL). Much of the roster is a forgone conclusion, but Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire will have some decisions to make in the coming weeks.
This issue has been a topic of discussion ever since the Twins clinched the division on Monday, simply because postseason rosters are no longer an eventuality but a certainty. There is a new thread pertaining to the subject over at the DTFC, and Jim Souhan also wrote an article for the Star Tribune on Tuesday. In the spirit of piggy-backing on popular ideas, I thought I would throw my two cents into the mix as well.
The Sure Things™
The Lineup™
Shannon Stewart- Stew has been a tad beat up of late, but he should be fine for the postseason.
Jacque Jones- JJ has been slumping lately (.458 OPS in Sept.) but he will undoubtedly still start every game in the playoffs, even against tough lefties.
Torii Hunter- Torii is one of the key cogs in this lineup, and the team is counting on him to produce come crunch time.
Justin Morneau- The Twins’ biggest power threat received a cortisone shot for his ailing hand on Sunday. He’s missed four straight games and is day-to-day; he should be back soon. We all know how important he is for the Twins’ offense.
Lew Ford- Sweet Lew has been a model of consistently in 2004 and will be big factor in October.
Corey Koskie- Koskie has looked pretty good since returning from his ankle injury. Hopefully he’ll flash his late-August form next month.
Christian Guzman- While Guzy really hasn’t played as well as everyone thinks he has, his defense has been much more consistent and I worry about him far less.
Henry Blanco- Henry’s really the only choice here, and although I wouldn’t be surprised if he went 0 for October, he’s done his job defensively all year.
Luis Rivas- Rivas has done almost nothing this year to deserve his job, although he is 5-16 this month (.313 avg.). Gardy will probably go with what’s worked before.
The Bench™
Michael Cuddyer- Cuddy has played nearly every game in September, and I daresay he’s played quite well (.298/.403/.474). I’ve always been a little skeptical of Cuddyer’s defensive abilities, but he’s improved enough in that area that I would consider starting him at 2B. He sat out last night with a possible pinched nerve, which is a bad sign.
Pat Borders- Borders probably won’t start a game in the playoffs unless Kyle Lohse starts, but he’ll be used as a defensive replacement if Blanco is pinch-hit or pinch-run for.
Jose Offerman- Remember Mike Ryan’s pathetic at-bat against Clemens last October? That’ll be Jose this year. And I’m glad it will be.
Matthew LeCroy- I don’t know how effective Matty will be off the bench, but he’s the team’s best bet if they need right handed hitter late in the game.
The Starters™
Johan Santana- It has been all but that confirmed that Cy will start Game 1 of the playoffs, and I know Red Sox hitters aren’t looking forward to that treat.
Brad Radke- Personally, I don’t think there’s a better Game 2 starter out there than Radke. It’s almost a guarantee that he’ll keep the Twins in the game.
Carlos Silva- After Mulholland’s lackluster outing yesterday, there is no doubt that Silva will start Game 3. I think he’s a perfect fit for Fenway, but we’ll see what happens.
The ‘Pen™
Joe Nathan- Super Joe has been the epitome of a great closer almost all season long. There will be a lot of pressure on him in the postseason, but I think he’s up to the challenge.
Juan Rincon- Rincon has been the team’s most consistent middle reliever all year, and he’s the guy Gardy should use in the tough situations. He might even get a little rest now that the Twins have clinched!
J.C. Romero- J.C. went into his patented “implosion mode” the other day, but I still think that he’s as close to his 2002 form as he’ll ever be. He’ll be Gardy’s 2nd go-to guy in the pen.
Jesse Crain- Crain did give up the grand slam the other day, but he’s still earned a spot on the playoff roster. You can never have too many strikeout pitchers in the playoffs.
Terry Mulholland- Even though I don’t see what purpose he’ll serve, Mulholland will undoubtedly make the roster. I guess he’ll be Gardy’s second lefty and/or one of his long relief guys. You might want to close your eyes when he comes in though; it might not be pretty.
What’s Left: Two bench spots, two bullpen spots
The Contenders™
Augie Ojeda- If Nick Punto isn’t fully recovered from his broken collarbone, the Twins will go with the reliable Ojeda in a utility role. He won’t contribute much, but he’s not a liability either.
Nick Punto- Punto seems to think that he’ll be ready in time for the postseason; the Twins aren’t so convinced. If he can prove that he’s healthy, the Twins would probably prefer him over Ojeda because he can pinch-run as well.
Joe Mauer- I watched Joe take batting practice the other day, and he was hitting line shots and monster homers left and right. We know that he won’t be able to play defense this year, and if there’s any doubt at all that his knee isn’t 100%, he’ll be shut down (as he should be). But if Joe can play, he’ll no doubt be an offensive asset. We'll know more on Friday after his doctor visit.
Jason Kubel- Kubel hit another homer last night, and it looks like he’s the fallback plan if Mauer can’t go. I don’t know how effective he’ll be coming off the bench in a pressure situation, but he certainly has talent to spare.
Grant Balfour- I think that Balfour, if healthy, should be a no-brainer for one of the final two bullpen spots, but that’s a huge “if”. If there are any lingering concerns with his reliability, Gardy may look elsewere.
Kyle Lohse- Unfortunately, Kyle Lohse will probably make the playoff roster. I’m telling you right now: he doesn’t deserve it. I’d actually rather have Roa or Mulholland out there in a mop-up role, simply because they’ve filled that role before this season. If the Twins advance to the ALCS and need a 4th starter, then I would consider adding him.
Joe Roa- After a solid August, Joa’s play in September has been decidedly less-than-stellar (14.40 ERA). Although he’s pitched pretty decently overall this year, he’s still a long shot to make the roster.
My Contender Predictions: Kubel, Ojeda, Lohse, Balfour
There you go. If you agree or disagree with my analysis or choices, feel free to post a comment below or e-mail me at twinsfan21@msn.com. Don’t’ forget to catch up on yesterday’s action with “Playoff Perspectives” below, and hopefully we’ll see you again tomorrow.
Playoff Perspectives
New York lost 5-4 to Toronto leaving them 3.5 GA at 95-57.
News - "El Duque" Hernandez finally pitched poorly allowing 5 earned runs in 6.1innings.
Boston won 7-6 over Baltimore, they are 91-60 and in first for the Wild Card.
News - Possible playoff third starter Bronson Arroyo allowed 5 runs in 5.1b innings, Orlando Cabrera won the game with a homerun in the bottom of the 12th inning.
Oakland lost 5-3 to Texas, they are 87-64 2.5 GA of Anaheim in the West.
Anaheim lost 16-6 to Seattle, dropped 6.5 GB in Wild Card race
Texas won 5-3 over Oakland, they are 84-67 and only 3 GB in the West.
National League
St. Louis won 3-2 over Milwaukee to go 99-52, they have the best record in baseball.
Atlanta lost 11-8 to Cincinnati,
Los Angeles lost 4-0 to San Diego, remains just .5 GA of San Francisco in NL West
San Francisco won 5-1 over Houston, has won 3 straight. .5 GA of Cubs in Wild Card standings.
Chicago won 1-0 over Pittsburg, they are 85-66 a game
Houston lost 5-1 to San Francisco, fall 3 GB in NL Wild Card
This issue has been a topic of discussion ever since the Twins clinched the division on Monday, simply because postseason rosters are no longer an eventuality but a certainty. There is a new thread pertaining to the subject over at the DTFC, and Jim Souhan also wrote an article for the Star Tribune on Tuesday. In the spirit of piggy-backing on popular ideas, I thought I would throw my two cents into the mix as well.
The Lineup™
Shannon Stewart- Stew has been a tad beat up of late, but he should be fine for the postseason.
Jacque Jones- JJ has been slumping lately (.458 OPS in Sept.) but he will undoubtedly still start every game in the playoffs, even against tough lefties.
Torii Hunter- Torii is one of the key cogs in this lineup, and the team is counting on him to produce come crunch time.
Justin Morneau- The Twins’ biggest power threat received a cortisone shot for his ailing hand on Sunday. He’s missed four straight games and is day-to-day; he should be back soon. We all know how important he is for the Twins’ offense.
Lew Ford- Sweet Lew has been a model of consistently in 2004 and will be big factor in October.
Corey Koskie- Koskie has looked pretty good since returning from his ankle injury. Hopefully he’ll flash his late-August form next month.
Christian Guzman- While Guzy really hasn’t played as well as everyone thinks he has, his defense has been much more consistent and I worry about him far less.
Henry Blanco- Henry’s really the only choice here, and although I wouldn’t be surprised if he went 0 for October, he’s done his job defensively all year.
Luis Rivas- Rivas has done almost nothing this year to deserve his job, although he is 5-16 this month (.313 avg.). Gardy will probably go with what’s worked before.
The Bench™
Michael Cuddyer- Cuddy has played nearly every game in September, and I daresay he’s played quite well (.298/.403/.474). I’ve always been a little skeptical of Cuddyer’s defensive abilities, but he’s improved enough in that area that I would consider starting him at 2B. He sat out last night with a possible pinched nerve, which is a bad sign.
Pat Borders- Borders probably won’t start a game in the playoffs unless Kyle Lohse starts, but he’ll be used as a defensive replacement if Blanco is pinch-hit or pinch-run for.
Jose Offerman- Remember Mike Ryan’s pathetic at-bat against Clemens last October? That’ll be Jose this year. And I’m glad it will be.
Matthew LeCroy- I don’t know how effective Matty will be off the bench, but he’s the team’s best bet if they need right handed hitter late in the game.
The Starters™
Johan Santana- It has been all but that confirmed that Cy will start Game 1 of the playoffs, and I know Red Sox hitters aren’t looking forward to that treat.
Brad Radke- Personally, I don’t think there’s a better Game 2 starter out there than Radke. It’s almost a guarantee that he’ll keep the Twins in the game.
Carlos Silva- After Mulholland’s lackluster outing yesterday, there is no doubt that Silva will start Game 3. I think he’s a perfect fit for Fenway, but we’ll see what happens.
The ‘Pen™
Joe Nathan- Super Joe has been the epitome of a great closer almost all season long. There will be a lot of pressure on him in the postseason, but I think he’s up to the challenge.
Juan Rincon- Rincon has been the team’s most consistent middle reliever all year, and he’s the guy Gardy should use in the tough situations. He might even get a little rest now that the Twins have clinched!
J.C. Romero- J.C. went into his patented “implosion mode” the other day, but I still think that he’s as close to his 2002 form as he’ll ever be. He’ll be Gardy’s 2nd go-to guy in the pen.
Jesse Crain- Crain did give up the grand slam the other day, but he’s still earned a spot on the playoff roster. You can never have too many strikeout pitchers in the playoffs.
Terry Mulholland- Even though I don’t see what purpose he’ll serve, Mulholland will undoubtedly make the roster. I guess he’ll be Gardy’s second lefty and/or one of his long relief guys. You might want to close your eyes when he comes in though; it might not be pretty.
What’s Left: Two bench spots, two bullpen spots
Augie Ojeda- If Nick Punto isn’t fully recovered from his broken collarbone, the Twins will go with the reliable Ojeda in a utility role. He won’t contribute much, but he’s not a liability either.
Nick Punto- Punto seems to think that he’ll be ready in time for the postseason; the Twins aren’t so convinced. If he can prove that he’s healthy, the Twins would probably prefer him over Ojeda because he can pinch-run as well.
Joe Mauer- I watched Joe take batting practice the other day, and he was hitting line shots and monster homers left and right. We know that he won’t be able to play defense this year, and if there’s any doubt at all that his knee isn’t 100%, he’ll be shut down (as he should be). But if Joe can play, he’ll no doubt be an offensive asset. We'll know more on Friday after his doctor visit.
Jason Kubel- Kubel hit another homer last night, and it looks like he’s the fallback plan if Mauer can’t go. I don’t know how effective he’ll be coming off the bench in a pressure situation, but he certainly has talent to spare.
Grant Balfour- I think that Balfour, if healthy, should be a no-brainer for one of the final two bullpen spots, but that’s a huge “if”. If there are any lingering concerns with his reliability, Gardy may look elsewere.
Kyle Lohse- Unfortunately, Kyle Lohse will probably make the playoff roster. I’m telling you right now: he doesn’t deserve it. I’d actually rather have Roa or Mulholland out there in a mop-up role, simply because they’ve filled that role before this season. If the Twins advance to the ALCS and need a 4th starter, then I would consider adding him.
Joe Roa- After a solid August, Joa’s play in September has been decidedly less-than-stellar (14.40 ERA). Although he’s pitched pretty decently overall this year, he’s still a long shot to make the roster.
My Contender Predictions: Kubel, Ojeda, Lohse, Balfour
There you go. If you agree or disagree with my analysis or choices, feel free to post a comment below or e-mail me at twinsfan21@msn.com. Don’t’ forget to catch up on yesterday’s action with “Playoff Perspectives” below, and hopefully we’ll see you again tomorrow.
Playoff PerspectivesNew York lost 5-4 to Toronto leaving them 3.5 GA at 95-57.
News - "El Duque" Hernandez finally pitched poorly allowing 5 earned runs in 6.1innings.
Boston won 7-6 over Baltimore, they are 91-60 and in first for the Wild Card.
News - Possible playoff third starter Bronson Arroyo allowed 5 runs in 5.1b innings, Orlando Cabrera won the game with a homerun in the bottom of the 12th inning.
Oakland lost 5-3 to Texas, they are 87-64 2.5 GA of Anaheim in the West.
Anaheim lost 16-6 to Seattle, dropped 6.5 GB in Wild Card race
Texas won 5-3 over Oakland, they are 84-67 and only 3 GB in the West.
National League
St. Louis won 3-2 over Milwaukee to go 99-52, they have the best record in baseball.
Atlanta lost 11-8 to Cincinnati,
Los Angeles lost 4-0 to San Diego, remains just .5 GA of San Francisco in NL West
San Francisco won 5-1 over Houston, has won 3 straight. .5 GA of Cubs in Wild Card standings.
Chicago won 1-0 over Pittsburg, they are 85-66 a game
Houston lost 5-1 to San Francisco, fall 3 GB in NL Wild Card
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