Wednesday, June 09, 2004

A Midsummer Night’s Nightmare

In the comments section of John’s entry yesterday, there was a good deal of discussion surrounding “Sweet” Lew Ford (who has been the official player of this blog for a month and a half) and his candidacy for All-Star consideration. Also, Jimmy Souhan over at the Strib wrote a related piece today. This got me thinking. Even though it is only June 9th, All-Star balloting has been going for at least three weeks already and it is never too early to start thinking about such things. It doesn’t look like the Twins will have a player voted into the starting lineup (no surprise there), so we’ve got to start speculating about subs. Who should be the Twins All-Star representative(s)? Do the Twins even deserve more than one? First of all, let’s take a quick look at the possible candidates:

Joe Nathan
1-0, 18 hits allowed in 25.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.22 K/9 IP, 15 saves in 16 chances
Even if Nathan doesn’t continue his recent dominance (Sunday’s near-disaster notwithstanding) and is only respectable, he’s an almost sure-fire lock to make the team as a reliever. Joe Torre always likes to carry plenty of closers and middle relievers on his All-Star teams, and Nathan is one of the top three or four closers in the AL right now. Obviously Torre will take Mariano Rivera, and Francisco Cordero (Texas) and Keith Foulke are strong candidates as well. Outlook: Barring an unforeseen collapse, Joe Nathan will almost certainly be representing the Twins in Houston come July.

Brad Radke
4-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, MLB-demolishing 0.87 BB/9 IP (8 walks in 83 innings)
This is one case that has really REALLY got me steamed. Brad Radke has been absolutely outstanding this season; he has been a model of consistency over the past month and a half. If Radke gets even average run support over that span, he could easily have eight or nine wins right now. He should most definitely have AT LEAST seven. If the Twins offense hasn’t decided to go on vacation during the month of May (and now June), Brad could have possibly cruised into July with 10 wins and a low 3.00s ERA, more than enough to gain a spot on the squad. As it stand right now, the ninth-best ERA in the AL has only garnered Radke a measly four wins and little/no buzz about an All-Star appearance. Outlook: Unless the Twins start scoring more than 0-2 runs when Radke pitches, he’ll simply be another player left “on the bubble.”

Lew Ford
.326 AVG, .404 OBP, .917 OPS, 7 HRs and 31 RBIs
I want to first off give this little disclaimer: I am a HUGE Lew Ford fan. In fact, I took the liberty of naming him the Official Player of Twins Chatter before he even reached his full sweetness. But Lew, as much as I love him, is not an All-Star. John and Mimiru did a good job of explaining just why yesterday, but it simply comes down to the fact that outfield is an extremely difficult All-Star position to crack. Manny and Vlad are locks, and Sheffield or Damon may (undeservingly) be the third OF starter, which would only further diminish Lew’s already-slim chances. In a perfect world, Ford might be rewarded for his excellent first half with an All-Star bid, but unfortunately, the All-Star selection process is even more flawed than the rest of the world. Outlook: Unless Ford goes on another tear like he did in April, his chances of making the All-Star game don’t look good.

The Usual Suspects:
Few of the Twins “core” players, they guys you would expect to warrant All-Star consideration, are even in the running this year.
Torii Hunter
Hunter is actually 9th among AL outfielders in the voting right now, but he doesn’t deserve to be. Torii was a deserving starter in 2002, but injuries have limited him to just 8 HRs and 24 RBIs this season.
Corey Koskie
Corey is tied for the team in home runs with 10, but a batting average in the .250s isn’t going to cut it any year.
Jacque Jones
Before his horrendous 1 for 37 slump, JJ was actually a viable All-Star candidate. But obviously that's not the case anymore, as his splits are .255/.314/.447.
Doug Mientkiewicz
Dougie Baseball has struggled with the omnipresent injury bug, but when playing he’s been one of (if not the) worst offensive first basemen in the majors.

My picks: If the game was to be played tomorrow, I believe Joe Nathan would be the Twins’ lone representative. A 31-26 team doesn’t really deserve more than one or two, and the Twins have never been a superstar-laden bunch. But by July 13th, I think that Radke will finally have the record to back up his superb ERA and will sneak in as a starter. In baseball, things usually have a way of evening out and I'm counting on this to be the case with Brad. Joe Nathan and Brad Radke are my predictions, but I hope Lew comes on strong and makes Torre seriously consider him for a bench slot (although I would be surprised if that happens).

Any other predictions/analysis out there? Post a comment below or e-mail me at twinsfan21@msn.com. Thanks for stopping by Twins Chatter again today; please drive home safely.

Monday, June 07, 2004

Twins Fact or Fiction

Today is the first installment of what may become a semi-regular feature of this site. You have seen it on TV with the experts and now here fact or fiction is at this blog. We are not experts but we are knowledgeable, insightful and often opinionated Twins fans. What else do you really need?

1. Luis Rivas deserves to start at second when he comes of the disabled list today.This is tough question to answer. I have been in love with the potential of Michael Cuddyer since the first time I've seen him hit. He just looks like a hitter at the plate. Unfortunately the numbers have not been there. He is mediocre at best in the field with the results being arguably better at second then at third. He has also began to heat up at the plate and despite everything is capable of driving in runs and hitting for power. Rivas was the starting second baseman and can expected to be rusty in his return. He wasn't hitting that well before he went down and that slump goes all the way back to last year. He turns a better double play better than Cuddyer but is not head and shoulders above him in any other area. I'm disappointed that neither have stepped up this year and taken the position. Cuddyer promises more potential but has not done enough to usurp the position. His recent hot hitting, while encouraging, could easily be a slump next week if he follows the pattern has developed in his major league career.
It is a fact that Luis Rivas is still the teams starting second baseman for now. He has been given ample opportunity to succeed but you can expect this to be his last chance. I want to see him provide offense and speed while being solid in the field. The chances of that are slim but at this point he slightly gives the team a better chance to win by bringing back a semblance of stability.

2. Joe Roa would be a better fifth starter then Seth Greisinger.
This is a fact. Joe Roa was a starter in the minors and began last year in the Phillies rotation. He has answered the call this year throwing 29 and a third bullpen innings while posting a 2.76 ERA. He has proved himself for a shot at the rotation. It would be a loss for the bullpen but the role he occupies at the moment is not necessarily that important. The fascination by the staff with Greisinger is troubling. He is not that good. They claim he has pitched better then his numbers indicate but for the whole year? I haven’t seen it. He has looked like just another AAAA pitcher. I'm sure the name Seth Greisinger doesn't spark fear in the hearts of any opponents. Neither does Joe Roa but both are holding down roster spots. The 12 man pitching staff is a luxury the Twins can't afford to have much longer. Roa is more useful and has pitched better. Greisinger or Muholland are the obvious choices to go. Muholland is more versatile then Greisinger. Grant Balfour has not gotten a long enough look since coming off injury to make a determination. It's time to cut bait on Seth Greisinger and go with option Joe.

3. Lew Ford deserves to be an all-star.This is fiction for now. The guy has played his heart out for the team and is a big reason they are only a game out in the standings. To be an all-star, from a good team, in the outfield you have to do almost everything. You can either hit lots of homeruns or steal many bases. Lew can do both but not enough. Even his .328 average is impressive but not nothing special. The Twins who deserve all-star consideration are Joe Nathan, Brad Radke and Carlos Silva. Torii Hunter might be a borderline pick because he is a fan favorite and for his defense. These players have excelled at their positions compared to others in the league. For the Twins to get all-star respect they need to have a good month between now and the game. It helps to be in first place. Guys need to emerge and take their spot on the team. It is hard to say what more Lew can do but he has yet to earn it.

4. Interleague play adds excitement to a long summer.It is a fact. It does take a little bit away from the World Series but adds a completely new element to the game. By the time the Series is played much of interleague play has long since been forgotten anyways. What is remembered is the crazy swings from American League pitchers or the Joe Mauers of the world getting to play with Mike Piazza. National League baseball is a lot of fun and American League fans should get to see it and its stars. The stars come out to play. The intriguing match up comes later this week when the Twins play the Phillies. Both teams were winners in last winters trade. It's too bad Eric Milton is not scheduled to pitch in the series but hopefully Silva manages to pull out a win for the home team.

Thank you for stopping by Twinschatter on what is our two month anniversary. If you agree or disagree with any of my opinions feel free to leave a comment below as always or email me at johnbetzler@hotmail.com. Anything that leads to Twins chatter is what we are all about here. If you feel like you have more to say feel free to write a column and send it to us. We might publish it and make you one of our guest columnists. All are welcome to take part in the chatter surrounding our favorite team.

2004 Day One Draft Recap

Well, the fun part is over. The Twins selected 18 new players in today's amateur draft, and early indications look good (don't they always?). The Twins did pick a couple of the players that I thought they would, but as is the nature of the baseball draft, there were plenty of surprises as well. The Twins had more than their fair share of surprises, but I trust Terry Ryan, Mike Radcliff, and the Twins scouting department wholeheartedly. Here are the players the Twins selected today:

Rnd, (Overall), Player, Position, School
1 (20) Trevor Plouffe SS Crespi HS, Northridge, Calif.
1 (22) Glen Perkins LHP U. of Minnesota
1 (25) Kyle Waldrop RHP Farragut HS, Knoxville TN
1S (35) Matt Fox RHP U. of Central Florida
1S (39) Jay Rainville RHP Bishop Hendricken HS, Pawtucket, R.I.
2 (61) Anthony Swarzak RHP Nova HS, Ft. Lauderdale FL
3 (91) Eduardo Morlan RHP Coral Park HS, Miami
4 (121) Mark Robinson OF Mountain View HS, El Monte, Calif
5 (151) Jeff Schoenbachler LHP Reno (Nev.) HS
6 (181) Patrick Bryant RHP Pensacola Catholic HS, Gulf Breeze, Fla.
7 (211) John Williams LHP Middle Tennessee State U.
8 (241) Jay Sawatski LHP U. of Arkansas
9 (271) J.P. Martinez RHP U. of New Orleans
10 (301) Jeremy Pickrel OF Illinois State U.
11 (331) Kyle Aselton LHP Oregon State U.
12 (361) Shane Boyd RHP U. of Kentucky
13 (391) Walter Patton RHP Lincoln Land (Ill.) CC
14 (421) Javi Sanchez C U. of Notre Dame
15 (451) Juan Portes SS Malden, Mass.
16 (481) Matt Tolbert SS U. of Mississippi
17 (511) Eamon Portice RHP Ft. Lauderdale HS, Oakland Park, Fla.
18 (541) Josh Rose RHP Mariner HS, Cape Coral, Fla.

Plouffe and Perkins were expected picks for the Twins, although I was a tad surprised that they took Plouffe with their first pick. His stock must have risen substantially as draft day approached...Perkins was almost a forgone conclusion, so I'm glad to see he'll have a chance to play for his hometown team. The Waldrop pick at #25 was a big surprise, however; one of the biggest surprises of the entire first round. Waldrop, a 6'5" 200 lb. power righty, is considered to be a very tough sign, as he has committed to Vanderbilt. I hope the Twins make a good effort to sign him, but the odds don't sound good. Here's a quote from Waldrop that appears in Baseball America: "I'm going toward Vanderbilt unless something catches me off guard or blows me away. Unless I'm presented with an even better opportunity with the draft than (the experience) Vanderbilt offers, I'm looking forward to a good three or four years of college."

Matt Fox was a great pick at #35, as he's a college guy with good velocity (low-mid-90s) with command of four pitches. I like that the Twins at least tried to balance talent and performance by selecting both high school and college pitchers. Jay Rainville surprisingly dropped all the way down to #39, and Radcliff and the Twins were smart enough to snatch him up. You can read what I said about him in the Draft Preview below, and this sounds like a steal for the Twins. He'll take some time to develop, most assuredly, but the results could be very rewarding.

Other picks of note are Swarzak, who is also considered a tough sign, and Robinson, one of only 6 non-pitchers drafted by the Twins.

My reactions:
Many experts considered this to be a pretty weak overall draft, with the one strength being college pitching (the Big Three from Rice being prime examples). I even read that it wasn't necessarily a good thing to have multiple early picks this year, as the Twins did. However, I think the Twins have definitely made the best of the hand they were dealt. The organization will probably only sign about 12-15 of their drafted players, instead of the 20-30 they normally sign, so they can focus on signing their myriad higher selections. This is a great strategy, as the team only has a limited draft budget. Usually, teams use the draft to not only find new talent but to fill out their minor league teams. The Twins, thinking ahead, have already accomplished the latter objective and can therefore dedicate more money to signing their higher draft picks. I think you can see evidence of this mindset especially in the Waldrop and Swarzak picks. These are two guys who's draft positions were underestimated not because of talent, but because of signability. If the Twins make a good effort to sign these guys (i.e. give them more money than their draft positions would normally dictate) I think the Twins could potentially have 6 legitimate first-round draft choices this year. This is a great way to take advantage of having so many high picks in what is perceived as a weak year--draft guys who other teams are scared to take.

As usual, the Twins also took an absolute ton (7) of HS pitchers early, although they took a bunch of college pitchers (8) as well--but mostly in later rounds. In a draft thin on position players, this was a smart move, but the Twins always take a ton of pitchers every year. You can never have too many young arms that thrown in the 90s! The Twins were also smart to draft Plouffe and a few other shortstops. This is an organization that desperately needs infielders in the minor leagues, and this should help with that a lot. At first glance, I'm pretty pleased with Day One of the 2004 Draft, but we won't know how successful the Twins' front office was until at least 2008. That is a long time to wait, but such is the nature of the MLB Draft.

p.s. Sorry I took so long to post this draft recap...A couple things came up and I decided to wait until the draft was done for today. Rounds 18-50 are tomorrow, but I don't think we'll have any extra content about them, except for perhaps a quick profile about two MN HS pitchers that will possibly be drafted: Tim Radmacher (Rosemount) and Aaron Craig (Rochester Century). I had a chance to watch both of them pitch over the weekend so I may post some thoughts if the Twins happen draft either one.

Sunday, June 06, 2004

Welcome to Twins Chatter!

I just wanted to devise a post to welcome all you first-time visitors to Twins Chatter. We've been going strong for about two months now, and although it has been a struggle at times, it has also been very rewarding. Twins Chatter features two writers: myself (Ryan) and my longtime friend John. We're both life-long Twins fans who enjoy writing as well.

Anyway, I hope you'll check out my latest post, which discusses (in some length) the upcoming Major League Amateur Draft, to be held Monday and Tuesday. Also, here are a few other notable archived posts you may enjoy:

Twins 2-Month Report Card
The Lost Month
Sunday Chatter
Early Season Playoff Match-ups
Thank You Victory Sports for Giving Me My Life Back
Braves Struggle Under Curse of Henry "Babe" Blanco

Also, if you would like to know more about John and I, click here to read a short biography about me and here to learn more about John. Thanks again for stopping by. Be sure and drop by again tomorrow as John will have a new post up.

-Ryan M.
twinsfan21@msn.com

2004 Twins Draft Preview

At noon on Monday, the 2004 Major League Amateur Draft gets underway. This year the occasion is extremely noteworthy for Twins fans. The Twins have five of the first 39 picks this year: numbers 20, 22, 25, 35, and 39. No other team has more than three of the first 40 selections; the Twins themselves have never had more than three of the first 50. Four of these picks (each except #20) are compensation selections for the free agent losses of Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins this past winter, including the latter two picks which will take place in the supplemental first round. For an organization that traditionally builds from within, this is a great opportunity for the Twins to ensure the continued success of the franchise.

What I have compiled below contains two parts. Part One quickly reviews the Twins’ recent draft history, and Part Two looks at some possible draft choices for the Twins in the early rounds of 2004. It’s a bit lengthy, but I think it is well worth reading in its entirety.

PART ONE: First of all, let’s take a look at the some early-round draft choices of the last few years for the Twins.

1998: 1st Round (6th overall)
Ryan Mills- A highly-touted lefthander out of Arizona State, Mills has been a complete bust for the Twins. He has struggled with his control at almost every level of the minor leagues, and was recently dropped from the 40-man roster. Mills seems to have found his niche lately as a mediocre AAA reliever. Not exactly worth the $2 million signing bonus the Twins doled out in ’98.

1999: 1st Round (5th overall)
B.J. Garbe- Garbe has been another early-first-round disappointment for the Twins. He has definitely not been the hard-hitting outfielder the Twins envisioned him as, posting an OPS of .508 at AA last year. He has been bad this year also, hitting only .232 through Sunday.
2nd Round (56th)
Rob Bowen- Bowen has done about average for a second-round pick, as he is currently the AA catcher for the Twins and has seen some time in the majors as well in ’03 and ’04. He might still become a serviceable major league player, but the Twins are obviously not the right organization for players at his position (more on that later).

2000: 1st Round (2nd overall)
Adam Johnson- Johnson has been one of the biggest draft busts in recent memory. After a horrific 1999 season, Twins fans everywhere were looking forward to a high draft choice in ’00, but the Twins chose signability over promise when they chose the seemingly-polished Johnson out of Cal-State Fullerton. He rose quickly through the ranks, making his ML debut in ’01, but never recovered from the pounding he took that season. He has been terrible at AAA and in his brief major league time ever since. And who can forget his infamous spring training meltdown of last year…
1st Round Supplemental (31st overall)
Aaron Heilman- The Twins drafted Heilman out of Notre Dame, but were unable to sign him. Heilman signed with the Mets the next year, and has been one of their top pitching prospects, although he has struggled in the majors this year (6.75 ERA).

2001: 1st Round (1st overall)
Joe Mauer- What more can I say about this guy that hasn’t already been said? Mauer has as good as advertised thus far: a patient, high-average hitter who is outstanding behind the dish. There was some controversy when the Twins chose Mauer over Mark Prior, but as Jim Souhan said in the Strib Sunday, the decision was a no-brainer. And hey, don’t look now, but Mauer collected his first ML home run, extra-base hit, and RBIs in Sunday’s game! Hopefully these are the first in what promises to be an illustrious career for the 21 year-old.
2nd Round (45th)
Scott Tyler- The jury is still out on Tyler, as he is only 21 years old. He is a great physical specimen (6’5”, 210) but he hit a little bump on the road last year at Quad Cities after a solid season at Elizabethton in ’02. He has been hurt for much of this season and has only made 4 appearances.

2002: 1st Round (20th overall)
Denard Span- ’02 marked the first time in almost a decade that the Twins did not have a top-10 draft choice. Management knew that Span would most likely take time to develop, as he was a rather raw high school player when drafted. Span, who had a decent season at Elizabethton last year, has struggled at times this season in Quad Cities, although reports say he is making progress. He projects as a lead-off man in the Kenny Lofton mold.
2nd Round (61st)
Jesse Crain- Every Twins fan worth his (or her) weight in off-color Teflon has heard the name Jesse Crain. A closer/shortstop from the University of Houston, Crain absolutely dominated the minor leagues these past two seasons, tearing through the Twins minor league affiliates like paper. He has been merely human this year at Rochester, posting a 3.81 ERA to go along with 12 saves. Crain has 98-mph fastball, a plus changeup, and a devastating breaking ball that Ron Gardenhire referred to as the “curveball from hell.” One of the better draft choices by the Twins over the past few years, he should see time with the Twins at some point this season.

2003: 1st Round (21st overall)
Matt Moses- Last year the Twins drafted the swing-swinging 3B Moses as a high school player. He was good in rookie ball last year, but has struggled somewhat with injuries, including a heart defect and back problems. Hopefully he will be okay, as he’s just 19 years old (actually 5 months younger than me—how weird is that?!).
2nd Round (58th)
Scott Baker- A standout pitcher at Oklahoma State, Baker has limited upside but has performed well thus far in the pros. He was very good at Fort Myers earlier this year (2.40 ERA in 7 starts, with only 6 walks in 45 IP) and earned a promotion to New Britain, where he has gone 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Everything I read says he projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the big leagues, which isn’t bad for a second-round pick.

Whew! We’ve gone over some recent draft history for our beloved Twinks, and as you can see the results have been somewhat less-than-spectacular. Many people refer to the draft as a “crapshoot,” implying that there is almost no way to know whether or not the player you’ve selected will pan out. But I’m not willing to concede that point just yet, so let’s take a look at some of the players the Twins are considering for their first three selections in this year’s draft.

PART TWO: Collegians

Josh Fields, 3B, Oklahoma State
Fields, who was also OK State’s star QB the past two seasons, probably won’t be around when the Twins pick at #20. If he is, I hope that the Twins draft him. Fields is a great college hitter with good power (12 HRs last year) and shows potential defensively at the hot corner. The Twins organization is sorely lacking in infield depth, and as a relatively advanced college player Fields would help fill a need. Also, he doesn’t project as an NFL quarterback so that can’t be used as bargaining leverage against the Twins (no Drew Hensons here).

Glen Perkins, LHP, University of Minnesota
Perkins and the Twins seem like a match made in heaven. The Twins, as we all know, have always sought to draft hometown kids and Perkins (who is from Stillwater) is extremely talented to boot. His fastball reaches 92 mph, he has a very good changeup, a plus curve, and has good control as well. The only knock on Perkins is that he’s not very big (5’11” 190) but I’m not too concerned with that. His relative lack of stature also means that the Twins will undoubtedly have the opportunity to draft him (probably with their #25 pick) and I would be shocked if they didn’t.

He did get roughed up the other day by Cal State Fullerton in the NCAA Regionals, but in the words of Sir Sidney this morning, that might actually have been a “good” thing because it will hurt his draft status. Leave it to Sid to find the silver lining in every Gophers loss…

B.J. Szymanski, OF, Princeton
I think that the Twins may possibly draft Szymanski only if they choose to go the “best available player” route. It is well publicized that the Twins aren’t hurting for outfield talent, but Szymanski sounds like he might be too good to pass up. Dubbed a 5-tool player by scouts, he’s a 6’5”, 215 switch hitter with a sweet stroke from both sides. His outstanding speed also should help him in the outfield. He hasn’t faced the best competition (playing in the Ivy League) so many scouts are anxious to see how he fares in the Regionals (update: not that well, unfortunately). I haven’t heard much about the Twins in connection with Szymanski, so I doubt that they will draft him. But you never know.

Mike Ferris, 1B, Miami of Ohio
I’m going to stick with the collegiate player theme and profile the Miami sensation Ferris. Ferris is the epitome of a “Moneyball” player: college hitter with very good plate discipline, mediocre fielder with little speed, and great power numbers. Despite the fact that he only emerged as a prospect last year, he sounds like a pretty safe pick (relatively cheap as well). I wouldn’t mind seeing the Twins draft him (despite the fact that we already have Justin Morneau), but it sounds like he will probably be snatched up by another budget-conscious team before the Twins, such as the Royals. If both the Twins and Royals pass, I’m sure Billy Beane will ecstatically draft him at #24.

David Purcey, LHP, Oklahoma
Purcey, also one of the top lefthanders in the draft, is an interesting case. He has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career thus far, which, despite his enormous physical gifts (the lefty is 6’5”, 240 with a 95 mph fastball) has scared some teams off. This spring he appeared to put it all together, sharpening the command of his fastball, curve, and change (he had 54 walks and 130 strikeouts in 118.2 innings this year). He’s a risk, but his talent means that he will go somewhere in the Twins range. I would actually rather the Twins took a high school player, because Purcey has the look of an Adam Johnson about him. But it is definitely possible that the Twins will take Purcey at either #22 or #25.


Preps:

Scott Elbert, LHP, Seneca, Mo
Elbert is considered one of the top two left-handed pitchers in the draft (the best HS one), and it will be a surprise if he’s still available for the Twins at #20 (let alone 22 or 25). He has a 93 mph sinking fastball, a change that also sinks, and a mid-80s slider (which is extremely impressive I think!). I can’t imagine the Twins could pass on him if he’s still available, but it’s doubtful he will be—he’s projected to go anywhere from #10-17. Mike Radcliff, Twins director of scouting, says that the Twins will continue to go after high school pitching despite the obvious cost concerns.

Jay Rainville, RHP, Bishop Hendricken HS, Pawtucket
Rainville, who comes from the same high school as Rocco Baldelli, put up some absolutely mind-boggling numbers this year: 10-0, 0.18 ERA, 9 walks and 165 strikeouts in 77 innings. It doesn’t get much better than that, even in high school! I’ve seen Rainville and the Twins linked in a couple of articles, so he seems like a pretty likely pick (provided he’s still available). He’s got a 90-94 mph fastball and is 6’3”, 220 lbs—that alone is reason enough to make him a surefire first-rounder. His other pitches are less refined, so it would most likely take him a few years to progress through the minors. I could definitely see the Twins drafting Rainville, although he’s not the safest pick in the world.

Blake DeWitt, SS, Sikeston, Mo.
I have seen the Twins and DeWitt connected numerous times, and it seems very likely that the Twins will draft him (probably in the supplemental round). Dubbed “one of the safest bets to hit among the draft's high school prospects” by Baseball America, DeWitt and the Twins seem like yet another match made in heaven. DeWitt was only ranked the 65th best prospect by BA, so I hope the Twins don’t stretch and use a regular first-round choice on him to save money. He’s also not going to be a shortstop in the pros and will probably be moved to second or third. Despite this, I would be surprised if the Twins didn’t draft him.

Eric Hurley, RHP, Wolfson HS, Jacksonville
In early draft previews, it appeared that the Twins would have a good shot at selecting Hurley with their first pick, but those chances have dwindled significantly as Hurley finished the prep season better than many of his fellow prep stars. Hurley is a scout’s dream: consistent 92-95 mph fastball, 6’4” 192 lbs, with an ability to maintain velocity late in games. I’m sure the Twins would be thrilled if Hurley fell to #20 (I know I would be), but that is looking less and less likely all the time. He will probably go from #10-15.

Trevor Plouffe, SS, Crespi HS, Northridge, Calif.
Plouffe also seems to be a likely pick for the Twins in the supplemental round. He was a great pitcher and shortstop in high school, and could do both if he chooses to honor his commitment to USC. He’s probably the second-best prep shortstop in the draft behind Matt Bush (whom the Padres are considering with the first overall pick) and has been compared to a young Robin Yount. But he could also be a pitcher, as he has a 91 mph fastball. I hope the Twins take Plouffe, as shortstop is a position of major organizational weakness.

Others:
Billy Butler, 1B/3B, Wolfson HS, Jacksonville
A budget-conscious first round pick, this kid can flat rake, but doesn’t really have a defensive position.
Chuck Lofgren, OF/P, Serra HS, Burlingame, Calif.
Previously regarded as an outfielder, he struggled at the plate this year and moved to the mound where he has been impressive. Possible supplemental pick.

Well, that’s enough for tonight. I hope all of you found this guide to be interesting, informative, and useful. It was actually kinda fun to write, as I hadn’t really taken the time to study this year’s draft before this weekend (usually I start reading stuff weeks in advance). Throughout the day tomorrow (Monday) I’ll post updates as to where these various players go in the draft and who the Twins get. Also, be sure to check out Twins Chatter each and every weekday for more insightful, thoughtful, and somewhat opinionated Minnesota Twins coverage.

-Ryan M.
twinsfan21@msn.com

Saturday, June 05, 2004

Coming Soon to a Blog Near You

Hey, I just wanted to give everyone a preview of some of the great stuff we've got planned for next week, so that y'all don't give up on us! On Sunday afternoon/evening (depending on whether or not I go up to the Twins game) I'm going to be publishing an extensive Twins Draft Preview, with information from Baseball America, mlb.com, and various other sources. The draft is Monday afternoon, so I would encourage everyone to come check out the site before then so you are up to speed on what route the Twins might take. Also, John and I are both going to have creative entries posted sometime next week, as we've got a few very good ideas cooking. I have a feeling that Monday is going to be a busy day here at Twins Chatter, so you don't want to miss it!

Hey! The Twins even pulled out a victory tonight! Does it get any better?


Torii celebrates after his walk-off homer gives the Twins only their 5th victory in their past 15 games.

Thursday, June 03, 2004

Twins Vs. Devil Rays 6-3

Today's column is going to take place during the game. I will be watching it from my parent's house in beautiful Northfield, Minnesota. This blog has been around for nearly 2 months now and I would like to give all our readers a view into my thoughts during the game. This is not a game recap and I might not have something to say for every inning. What it will be is my observations and the types of things I would talk about with Ryan if we were watching the game together. Day games are my favorites so it should be an overall good time.

Game Preview - Johan Santana starts for the Twins today against Mark Hendrickson. The Twins need to win this game and Santana needs to show that he has turned a corner. Nothing short of 7 strong innings is good enough. The Twins bats need to come alive against the mediocrity that is Hendrickson. I'm disappointed to see that Mauer is not playing this afternoon. It also strikes me as interesting that Mike Ryan gets the start against a lefty. He is in need of at bats and I still expect a big day from him. I also am not a fan of Torii Hunter in the 3rd spot in the lineup. He is not patient enough to hit there.

Top of First - Great start for Johan. He was hitting his spots and he looked to have both his fastball and changeup working. None of the outs were even hit hard. This is a very good sign of things to come in this game. He was efficient and didn't throw too many pitches either.

Bottom of the Second - Twins mount a rally with 2 outs but leave 2 aboard. I just want to say this about Michael Cuddyer. He needs a spot on this team. They need to show faith in him and put him somewhere where they arn't going to juggle him around. He looks like a hitter at the plate and will produce if ever given a chance. I'm not sure yet if he is a second baseman but he needs a place. I'm really impressed with Alex Prieto. He just looks scrappy at the plate and has done everything asked of him. Already he appears to be a better player then Denny Hocking was for this team. As happy as I am to see Rivas back I will be sorry to see Prieto go. I guess I'm just a homer for the little guy. Johan is looking very good through 2. His offspeed stuff is on today meaning good things are ahead.

Bottom of the Fourth - Finally the Twins break through and score another run against Hendrickson. What makes this more amazing is that the run scored off the bat of Henry Blanco. Maybe he's good for something afterall but I still would prefer to be watching Mauer. Despite the team's two runs they still do not look good at the plate. They are wasting opportunities. It makes me sick to watch Hunter hit. For some reason, now it looks like he's having trouble with the inside breaking ball. Yes, he hit the ball hard last time up but it turned into 2 outs! This guy up with runners in scoring postion can be really sickening sometimes. Johan seems to be in the middle of something special. 5 k's so far and no hits. He looks really tough to hit and all his pitches are working for him.

Middle of the Fifth - Why did Bremer just do that? YOu would think that he had been around the game long enough to know better. Instead he said the dreaded word which I refuse to use here. Let's just say that Johan has thrown 5 very good innings so far. The baseball gods will not smile on anyone saying more. So now when it doesn't happen we can blame Dick. I look for the D-Rays to break through next inning as much as it saddens me.

Middle of the Sixth - For there was no joy in Twinsland, mighty Johan has gotten shelled. I hate it when I'm right. Everything was going great and even when he gave up his first hit of the game it still looked like he would be able to get out of it with the shutout intact. Then the crap hit the big fan. Now all those missed scoring opportunities come back to haunt us. It has to be so disheartening to the hitters to now have to go out there and dig themselves out of a hole. Earlier in the season they would have gotten on their horse at this point and scored some runs to win the game. I just havn't seen the same spunk fromt his team lately. The chinks in their armor are showing. What makes everythign worse is that everything has happened against such poor competition. The Devil Rays just don't do this. They were the worst road team in the majors coming into this series and now they are on the verge of taking 3 out of 4 in this series. There comes a point where the team can't just sit back and complain about lost injured players. The players still around need to be held accountable. There are too many underperforming stars still around to fall on that excuse. I said earlier that Johan needed to turn a corner in this game. Maybe this is just what we can expect from him this year. Through 5 innings no one could have pitched better and then the 6th came along and he gave it all up. This inconsistency has to stop!

Top of the Eigth - I might be wrong. Johan is pitching into the eigth inning for the first time this year. He has done a great job of shaking off his rocky inning and seems to be pitching as well as he did before the 6th. It means a lot to this team for him to eat some innings. Perhaps, he isn't be as inconsistent as previously thought. Still, even if this team finds it within itself to come back and win this game there have been some disturbing trends developing.

Recap - The poor play continues... I want to say the team showed some life in this game but then I think about our hitters. The Devil Rays do not have a good pitching staff and yet we could only muster 2 runs. Perhaps Detroit is the cure for what ails us. Unfortunatly they have been playing a lot better this year and might take this opportunity to put up a fight. I wish I had more to say but at this moment I'm disgusted with the home team's play this afternoon. Yet another wasted opportunity.

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

2-Month Report Card: Your Minnesota Twins

Twins: 28-23, 1.5 GB Chicago

Well, we are almost two full months (about 30%) into the 2004 season, and it is time to dole out report cards. Hey, if my professors can grade my intelligence, why can’t I grade the play of my favorite team? I figure I’m just as qualified as they are. ;)

Hitting: B-

Were it not for the recent slump (yesterday’s 16-4 romp notwithstanding) this grade would probably be a B or possibly even an A-. Overall, the Twins have handled the bats reasonably well this season. After Tuesday’s outburst the Twins rank 12th in the majors in runs scored (9th in the AL), 11th in homers (5th in the AL), and 14th in OPS (9th in the AL). Now these numbers in themselves are not overly impressive, but don’t forget how great the offense was back in April. The Twins finished 15-7 and had the second-best offense in the AL in both runs and OPS.

May was obviously not so great (the Twins finished 13th in the AL in runs and OPS and last in batting average), so we’ll average the two and give the Twins a B-. I absolutely hate to use injuries as an excuse, but it is applicable in this case—the losses of Hunter, LeCroy, Koskie, Mauer, and Stewart have definitely hurt the Twins in this area. But don’t look now! In June, the Twins are leading the majors in almost every single offensive category, including runs (16), homers (5), and hits (14).

Top Individual Performers:
Jacque Jones (.272/.332/.482, 10 HRs, 33 RBIs, 8 SBs)
Lew Ford (.333/.405/.494, 28 RBIs)
Shannon Stewart (.287/.396/.405)- on DL indefinitely
Torii Hunter (7 HRs, 22 RBIs despite a DL stint)

Starting Pitching: C-

I am probably being a little generous with this grade. The starting staff, which wasn’t considered to be this team’s biggest question mark coming in, has been very underwhelming. Twins starters are 15-15 this year with a 4.85 ERA (which is actually better than the Yankees’ starters), which is simply not acceptable for a team that hopes to reach the playoffs. The Twins are not the Yankees; they cannot simply bludgeon every team over the head with a lineup of All-Stars. Johan Santana and Kyle Lohse have been very disappointing thus far. After Lohse had such a great spring I thought that he was ready to have a breakout season, but such was obviously not the case. He has struggled mightily with his command, issuing an extremely uncharacteristic 33 walks in only 61.1 innings this season. “Walks will haunt” is what they always say, and for Kyle that has certainly been the case. Johan has shown flashes of his old (2003) form, but just has not been able to put it all together this season. I think he will snap out of this funk soon; he has seemingly regained his devastating changeup and needs only to tweak a few other things.

The only two positives on the staff have been Brad Radke and Carlos Silva. Brad has been truly “rad” in May, posting a 2.20 ERA with only 3 walks in 41 innings. The Twins have been unable to convert on a few of those outings, but that is a rant for a different time. I have been pleasantly surprised by Radke’s performance. Silva was a godsend early on, going 5-0 and sporting a 3.11 ERA as late as May 11, but had been very human from then until last night. Hopefully yesterday’s encouraging outing will get him back on track as well. Seth Greisinger has not been a ball of fire either as the fifth starter. His 4.59 starting ERA may look decent, but hitters are batting .303 against him with 7 HRs in 35.1 innings. Overall, there is a lot of room for improvement in this area.

Top Individual Performers:
Brad Radke (4-2, 3.52 ERA, 69 IP in 11 starts, plus a staff-low 5 walks as a starter!)
Carlos Silva (6-2, 4.34 ERA, 11 walks in 66.1 IP)

Bullpen: B

I watched a little of the Twins telecast on Monday against the Rays, and I heard Bert Blyleven give the Twins bullpen a grade of a C. Bremer, ever the clueless optimist, gave them an A or something stupid like that. I’m going to put myself right in the middle. The bullpen was the Twins’ main question mark heading into the season, and they have performed above expectations overall. Twins relievers are 12-8 this season with a respectable 4.33 ERA. Now I realize this is a far cry from 2003’s 3.84 and 2002’s 3.68, but if you look at the personnel the Twins have in their pen it’s actually pretty impressive. Who would have thought that Joe Roa would post a 2.22 ERA and 1.27 WHIP heading into June? What about Aaron Fultz (3.65 and 1.18)? The dynamic duo of J.C. and Juan Rincon have been less-than-spectacular, as each have had some control problems and have disturbingly high WHIPs, but they’ve each been pretty decent overall. Joe Nathan is the real standout here. He has been absolutely lights-out this season, posting a 1.14 ERA and WHIP to go along with his 14 saves in 15 chances. Opponents are hitting only .181 off Nathan this season, which is absolutely incredible. Terry Mulholland has been as crappy as we all imagined he would be, but for a mop-up guy I guess he’s okay (assuming that’s the only time Gardy uses him). Grant Balfour will come around once he begins to pitch a little more, as he has performed well of late. I feel pretty good about the bullpen right now, although this is a unit that is at a higher risk of falling apart sometime down the road, simply because so few of them have proven track records.

Top Individual Performers:
Joe Nathan (1.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 14 saves, .181 BAA, 11.03 K/9)
Joe Roa (2.22, 1.27)
Aaron Fultz (3.65, 1.18)
Juan Rincon (2.77, 11.08 K/9)

Fielding: D

This is one grade that I would have never expected to give and is also the most befuddling. As of right now, the Twins rank 26th in the majors in fielding percentage, 29th in Zone Rating, and 27th in errors with 42 in 51 games. These are pretty much the same guys that have made up one of the game’s best defensive teams for the past few seasons! Some people have blamed the Evil™ Turf for this abrupt change, but that excuse became obsolete after the first home series, no matter what Dougie Baseball says. I really don’t have a real explanation as to why Twins have been fielding so poorly this year. Cuddyer was very bad in his short stint at 3B (6 errors and a .893 fielding percentage), but the real culprit is probably Twins pitchers, who have committed a team-high 9 errors and are only fielding at a .900 clip. I think this is definitely a fluke occurrence, as there is no way that the Twins staff should be any worse defensively than every other team’s. But there have been some positive signs of late: the Twins have only committed 2 errors in their past 9 ballgames, and the return of Koskie, Mauer, and Rivas will only help this team defensively.

Overall Grade: C+

I think that an overall grade of a C+ is very appropriate for the Twins thus far. At their current pace the Twins will finish with 89 wins, which is slightly more than most people expected them to win before the season started. A C+ is, after all, a slightly above average grade. April was good, May was not, and I think a June swoon in not the cards for our beloved Twins. Perhaps things will stabilize a bit this month and the Twins will revert back to the mean. Tuesday’s win will hopefully snap us out of our slump, and the Twins can get back to the business of winning ballgames.

And Terry Ryan, don’t forget that I expect you to sign this report card and bring it back to school by tomorrow, or there will be no recess for you, young man. :)

-Ryan
twinsfan21@msn.com

Tuesday, June 01, 2004

When the **** Hits the Fan

I hope our loyal readers (all 40 or so of them) will excuse our day off yesterday, Memorial Day. I’m sure most of you had the day off from work as well, and the weather was actually half decent (at least here in Northfield) for the first time in about a month.

Today I would like to bring up a rather disturbing trend that I’m sure many of you have noticed during the Twins’ recent woes, especially during the past 7 days: many of these games seem to be lost in the middle (4-7) innings! Today was a perfect example. Seth Greisinger did not exactly pitch “well” for the first 5 innings, but he was adequate: 3 ER on 3 hits, including 2 home runs. The important thing was that he had kept the Twins in the game. It was the 6th inning when the proverbial “crap” hit the fan. I have no doubt that a good team would have figured out Greisinger sooner, but in the 6th things just began to fall apart. Single by Baldelli. Line-shot double by Huff. 2 outs (including a sac fly), then a walk. Just like that, a potential quality start is turned into yet another poor outing.

A very similar situation occurred during Saturday’s 5-2 loss at the hands of the Royals. Johan cruised through 6 full, then ran into some big time trouble in the 7th. J.C. definitely didn’t help matters by giving up a bases-clearing double to Beltran, but the fact remains that a fading starter once again opened the floodgates. Johan goes from having a stellar outing that lowers his ERA to a respectable level to an outing that makes it balloon up to 5.61. However, the important fact is that the Twins lost.

During last Thursday’s 5-4 loss to the Deviled Hams, the inning of consequence was the fourth. Jacque had just given the Twins a 4-2 lead with a 3-run bomb and it seemed the Twins just might (heaven forbid) win two games in a row against a last-place team. But after getting the first 2 outs in the fourth Carlos Silva surrenders a 3-run homer to Baldeli, which would hold up as the winning margin.

This whole trend can be traced back to May 25, exactly one week ago. The Twins and Rays were tied up at 1 heading into the 6th, but Tampa scored 3 runs in the 6th off Lohse and 2 more off Fultz in the 7th and won the game going away.

This trend raises many questions about the makeup of the 2004 Twins. Early in the season, I dubbed the Twins the “Comeback Kids” with good reason. They were racking up come-from-behind victories like there was no tomorrow, en route to a 15-7 record in April. The fun peaked with Matty LeCroy’s game-winning grand slam against the Blue Jays on May 19.

We all should have known it was too good to be true. Since that game, the Twins have gone 3-9 with exactly one come-from-behind win (and that was a pretty mild comeback—down by one run in the 5th against the Rays). But what does this say about our Minnesota Twins? It absolutely pains me to say it, but in their current state the Twins just aren’t as good as they looked in April and early May. The starting pitching has been abysmal (outside of Radke) and the bullpen less-than-spectacular. A team cannot survive on comebacks alone, and this has become obviously apparent over the past 7 days. The starters have been tiring abnormally early and surrendering some key mid-game rallies, and that has been the main difference between this recent slump and the good times of weeks past.

The solution to this problem is simple: Lohse, Silva, and Santana need to pitch better later in games. These guys should not be running out of gas in the 6th and 7th innings; playoff teams shouldn’t have to rely on their bullpen to pitch 3+ innings every night. I think Gardy is doing the right thing by leaving the starters out there to start the later innings, because if they don’t build up a little stamina now they won’t be ready for the stretch run in August and September. The ever-present injuries have also been an issue, but even that excuse is wearing thin. Shannon has been adequately replaced with Sweet Lew, Koskie is back, Mauer returns Thursday or Friday, and Rivas sucks anyway.

The Twins desperately another starting pitcher, and it looks like that pitcher will have to come through a trade (Rick Helling is most certainly not the answer). Silva will make an excellent #5 guy, and perhaps being the #4 starter would take some pressure off Lohse. I’m not sure right now exactly who’s out there, but the Twins obviously have much more to offer than some other clubs who are also looking for starting pitching.

That’s all for today. I’m going to post my 2-month report card for the Twins tomorrow, and I’m sure John will have his grades up soon after. Also, I’m planning on doing another “futuristic newspaper article” for Thursday, so be sure to stop by and check that out. Plus, a reminder to cast your vote for Twins Chatter in the World Series of Blogs! Thanks for everyone who’s voted thus far!


Is it just me, or is there a disturbing pattern in many of Seth Greisinger photos that are published?

Monday, May 31, 2004

Rainout

Twins Chatter doesn't take a holiday but do to the recent rash of poor play we are taking the day off to rest our poor heads. Yesterday the Twins and Kyle Lohse finally got back into the win column. This coming after a week of terrible play against below average competition. Don't get the wrong idea, we at Twins Chatter are not fair weather fans (anyone who was around during the mid to late 90's could not be), we just have high expectations for our team. Luckily there is some good news. The team is two games out of first and looks to be getting pheonom Joe Mauer back within the week. In a lot of ways this swoon has come at a much better time then last years'. If the team can begin to pull things together it will be setting itself up for a strong summer. Still, there are things that concern me with this team such as improved competition from the White Sox this year, our own inconsistent play, and too much being expected from a guy who has played in exactly one major league ball game. This will probably be a topic of a future column this week. Until then make sure to cast your vote for us to be in the World Series of blogs. We are so new to this but are very excited whenever we receive any recognition. Hope to see you back here tomorrow at your source for insightful, thoughtful, and somewhat opinionated Minnesota Twins coverage.
John

Friday, May 28, 2004

Enigma Up the Middle

The past week, there has been almost nothing but bad news emanating from our Minnesota Twins, including Thursday’s 5-4 loss at the hands of the hapless Deviled Hams. However, we did get a nice little boost today; a “ray of sunshine poking through on a cloudy day,” if you will. This ray (not of the deviled variety, fortunately) was none other than Corey Koskie. It was great to see him go to the opposite field in his first AB for a homer. Hopefully his presence will help solidify the lineup. One thing this move does mean is that Michael Cuddyer is now free to resume his super-utility role. With Louie still out that means we will probably be seeing a lot more of Cuddy over at second base. The following is from today’s Star Tribune:

Third base coach Al Newman, who drills the infielders, said Cuddyer can be a better second baseman than a third baseman.
"We didn't spend hours upon hours at 7:30 in the morning on field number six [in spring training] taking ground balls and working on double plays for me not to feel like he's comfortable enough over there," Newman said.
When Cuddyer is playing third, the Twins coaching staff believes he tends to stand up when balls are hit toward him, instead of making his first move toward the ball. Second base doesn't demand the reflexes third base does.
"If you watch his body language, he's definitely more comfortable over there," Newman said. "More than he is at third. I don't think he doesn't like third, but I look at body language and he's more comfortable [at second] than at third base."


I began writing today with the thought that I would once again state my opinion that Cuddyer could not be the Twins everyday second baseman. These few quotes by Al Newman aren’t going to sway me entirely, but they are very interesting nonetheless. Watching Cuddyer play second a handful of times early in the season, I was extremely unimpressed with his defense. He was not getting good reads on groundballs, and he was not displaying the soft hands that are so crucial for a middle infielder.

I could not believe that the Twins organization, the same one that had benched Todd Walker for his defense, would put such a poor fielder at a crucial position on the infield. Now, I’m not crazy about Rivas, but you can’t say he doesn’t turn the double play as well as anyone in the league. Louie’s range isn’t spectacular by any means, but he makes Cuddyer look almost like Jose Offerman out there (notice I said almost).

To me, the epitome of Twins Baseball™ is good defense and pitchers that throw strikes. When it all comes down to it, I’m a firm believer that it is those two things more than anything else that helps you win ballgames. That’s what TK always says, and I’m a huge TK guy (come on, how can you not be?). As much as I love their bats, starting guys like Matthew LeCroy and Cuddyer in the field directly contradicts this basic principle.

But Newmie’s quotes here are interesting. When Koskie went down, I thought it was finally Michael Cuddyer’s time to shine. He had the chance to play his normal position, third base, every single day. But Cuddy performed well below expectations at the plate and especially in the field. I can recall at least a few instances where Cuddyer didn’t even come close to fielding balls that Corey vacuums up handily, simply because Cuddyer doesn’t seem to react quickly enough. Whereas Koskie does a great job of staying low and just reacting to the ball, Cuddyer does have a tendency to come up before deciding how to approach it. How many balls did we see go through the hole between short and third in Tampa Bay, just out of Cuddyer’s reach? How many at Metrodome against the ChiSox?

Perhaps Cuddyer can make some in-season adjustments and become an adequate second baseman. No one is in a position to say anything definitively just yet. All I know is that he still has a ways to go before he gets to that point. But if Al Newman sees some potential, then I suppose I can hold off on any final judgment for at least a little while. Unfortunately for Cuddyer and the Twins, however, the clock is ticking.


Twins fans may be seeing a whole lot more of this unless Michael Cuddyer makes some serious improvements in the field

Wednesday, May 26, 2004

Chatter

It's a busy time of year for the Twins. They are right in the thick of a real, all out dog fight for the division. They await the return of some of their injured players while others continue to go down. The team is witnessing impressive performances and some not so impressive ones. And for the first time in years the team may be willing to part with prospects to be active players in the trade market. In all, a lot is going on in Twins land right now.

Injury Updates -

Twins third baseman Corey Koskie will be activated from the 15-day disabled list in time for today's game against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. - Star Tribune
This should be good news to every Twins fan out there. This move allows the team to move Michael Cuddyer to second base finally giving them some infield depth. While Cuddyer's bat has been relatively hot, his fielding at the hot corner has been below adequate. Koskie should give the defense a much needed boost while his bat will be a welcome addition to the lineup. He is the first step in the Twins getting back to full strength.

C Joe Mauer (left knee) is set to start a minor league rehabilitation assignment and might rejoin the Twins next week. ESPN.com
Let us all rejoice! No more Henry "I can't buy a hit, heck I can't hit a ball off a tee!" Blanco. Mauer is not only a major boost for the offense, his presence behind the plate is also an addition. Matt LeCroy can do a lot of things but one of them is not throw out runners. Mauer will solidify the bottom of the order, call a great game behind the plate and keep runners honest. He brings a new life to the team, a star quality. Every time he bats is exiting to watch. The guy hit two homeruns in a game Tuesday. The time is quickly approaching where we will finally get to see Mauer up close on a daily basis.

Trade Winds -

Clubs that have spoken with the Royals say Baird has told them that if his team doesn't make some kind of move up in the standings in its current run of division games against Detroit and Minnesota, he'll be ready to listen. And not just on Beltran. Jayson Stark
Bet on that run in the standings never happening. This Royals team is bad. They have no pitching and many of their free agent signings where old and over the hill. On the surface it looks like a good thing for the Twins that there is one less team in the race. Depending on where the Royals ship their guys it could actually make things harder on the Twins. The Twins could have to deal with getting Carlos Beltran or Mike Sweeney out in the postseason. Judging from the games played so far this year against the Royals, that is a scary proposition.

As the potential July sellers begin to separate themselves from the buyers, there appears little question that the two starting pitchers who figure to attract the most attention before the trading deadline are Kris Benson and Freddy Garcia. Opinions are mixed on the reliability of both of those guys. But one scout who saw Benson recently puts him at the top of his team's list. Stark
This is every Twins fan's dream, acquiring an ace for a push deep into the playoffs. Too bad there are none out there and those pitchers available will come at a high cost. Garcia has been great so far this season with a 2.71 ERA and 6.86 K/9 but his career has been mostly up and down. He has pitched great in the playoffs against the Yankees though and when on, is tough to beat. Benson had major arm surgery over a year ago. He has a 4.61 ERA and 5.98 K/9. He has always had potential but has not lived up to it. Perhaps an escape from the Pirates would do the trick. His stuff might make him a better postseason option then Garcia. Since he has never been there, nobody knows. Then again a certain 21 year-old from Texas had never been there before last year's playoffs and look how that turned out.

Stat Lines of the Night -

Hitting - Lew Ford 3AB 3H 2R 2BB .344AVG
Reaching base 5 times in 5 tries is not easy. This guy continues to hit and he isn't going away. He creates things for the offense. His short swing is likely to keep him from any extended slumps. He hits the ball hard and when he doesn't still manages to find a way to get on base. Now he is batting lead off and setting the tone. His performance in that spot has so far been admirable. A .344 average puts him just out of the top 5 in the American league. Incredible, that's the best word to describe his play so far.

Pitching - Joe Nathan 1IP 0H 0BB 1K 1SV
He is un-hittable right now. He has given up 3 runs all year! Not only are teams not scoring off him, they are no longer getting on base. It's such a luxury to enter the ninth with a lead and have the win be automatic.

And Then There Was Justin:
.353AVG 17AB 6H 2HR 3RBI
Not a bad start to his major league season. He can flat out mash. His swing is filled with power and the potential of homeruns. He is going to stick this time. The Twins would not have called him up if they weren't ready to hand over the reigns. Now is the time to let him go out there and play. He is going to put up numbers and he is going to go through slumps. Most power hitters do. Patience is key. Other teams have to respect his potential in the lineup. He is the one guy capable of rocking a pitch and taking the team from a 1 run deficit to a 2 run lead. I was really impressed with how he played against the White Sox this weekend. He didn't back down. He was a large part we won the game we did. The Twins are doing it right by batting him lower in the order to take some pressure off to start. The beginnings of a formidable lineup are in place.
John

Deviled Hams Feast on Lohse

Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately) I wasn't able to catch very much of Tuesday's 6-1 loss to the Devil Rays for a variety of different reasons (the most notable of which being my 15-page Russian history paper) but looking at some of the stats I'm not all that sad I missed it. I know the Rays are hot, but come on! We had won 11 straight against the perrenial bottom-dwellers! I only hope that this current slide doesn't become last year's infamous pre All-Star break skid, at the end of which the Twins will find themselves looking up at both the ChiSox and (*shudder*) the Tigers.

Kyle Lohse was once again subpar (4 ER in 6 innings). This guy just can't buy a break--many starts he is able to hold it together through five but just can't seem to avoid trouble in the sixth or seventh. The Twins were also unlucky enough to catch the enigma that is Victor Zambrano on his only good day of the entire frickin' month. The guy has electric stuff, no doubt about it, but has been terribly inconsistent so far this year. His April ERA was a solid 3.73 but for May it was (before Tuesday) a bloated 11.00. It also doesn't say much for the Twins' allegedly improved plate discipline when they are only able to coax 2 walks out of a guy that had walked a mind-boggling 44 batters in 55.1 innings before Tuesday (including single game totals of 7,7, and 9!).

The only hightlight was once again Justin Morneau. I know we got a taste last year, but man is this guy good! He is so naturally strong that I think his new nickname should be "Popeye". Kinda catchy, isn't it?



Justin "Popeye" Morneau is congratulated after his second homer of the season, a monster shot in the 3rd inning while Popeye the Sailorman contemplates the tremendous power of his namesake

Monday, May 24, 2004

Five Reasons The White Sox Shouldn't Get Excited

They must really be patting themselves on the back in White Sox land today after their strong weekend showing against the Twins. Let's be honest, it wasn't merely strong showing, it was a thumping not seen 'round these parts since the 2001 NFC title game. All a fan can do is tip their cap to the Sox. They won this round but they still have a mountain to climb to win the division.

1. It is still very early - Games in May are important but the baseball season is a marathon. Are the White Sox capable of winning the big game? What about against their division rival, in September, when they need it? They will need to overcome past demons to do so.

2. Most of the Twins starters did not play in this series - That's right; no Koskie, Mientkiewicz, Stewart, Mauer or Rivas. The White Sox bullied a battered team that until recently had dealt fairly well with its rash of injuries. Now they seem to be in a transition where too many guys are out and they are figuring how the pieces fit.

3. The Twins defense is never that bad - Jose Offerman at second base? This is an indirect effect of the injuries. When the right guys return other teams will have to work more to score runs. Defense improves every facet of the game. The pitches are more confident, the hitters have less of a hole to come back from and the other team scores less.

4. Twins pitching will improve - It is not a stretch to believe this is going to happen. Johan Santana had no command of his pitches this weekend and as a result got shelled. Seth Greisinger will give way to a more viable option if he continues to lay an egg. Kyle Lohse did not get a chance to pitch in this series but just ask Paul Konerko what he thinks of facing him. The jury is still out on Carlos Silva. He has followed a great start to the season with two very lousy outings. Chances are his overall performance will fall somewhere in between. The bullpen was up and down all weekend. They were strung out and not used in anything close to ideal situations. When they are set up properly they have looked very good this year. It all starts with improved starting pitching.

5. The White Sox wanted this series more then the Twins - They are the ones with something to prove. The Twins don't worry, they are trying to work some things out right now. Of course there are concerns but the Twins have shown in the past they are more then capable of getting through problems. The White Sox have yet to have problems this year but in the past have crumbled. Maybe with Ozzie Guillen things will be different this year. They would have to start by upgrading their pitching. Outside of Buerhle, their starters are not good. Loiza was great last year and has done alright thus far but has not shown the same stuff. The Twins hit Jon Garland hard on Sunday and with any kind of a pitching performance would have won the game. The White Sox bullpen is one big roller coaster ride. The White Sox don't play defense like they should and some of their hitters are streaky. Add it all together and you have got one very large team slump somewhere on the horizon.

Add it all up again and what you get is another great race for the summer and Twins division championship in the fall. This weekend the White Sox came into our house and took 3 out of 4. That is baseball. The manner in which it occurred was disturbing but that happens sometimes. I've said it before and I'll say it again: the White Sox don't deserve the Twins respect until they've earned it. Earning it can only come from going to the playoffs. They are a better team than last year but the Twins are still above them. The Twins took the Sox’ best punch this weekend and they are still standing.

Thud

What a difference four days makes. The last time I wrote, May 19, the Twins were riding a wave of momentum. Matthew LeCroy had just put an exclamation point on what had been a very impressive nine game stretch for the team with his ninth inning game-winning grand slam against the Blue Jays. From May 11-19, the Twins went 7-2 overall, including a sweep of the Mariners at home and winning series in both Chicago and Toronto. Despite the omnipresent injuries, things were falling into place nicely.

Fast forward to May 23. The Twins had just lost in embarrasing fashion to division rival Chicago by a score of 17-7. This finished off what was an ugly weekend of baseball for Twins fans (execpt of course for Saturday's 9-1 win). The Twins finished the first 7 of their 19 games with the ChiSox 3-4. As the Strib noted today, the totals in those four losses have been extremely one-sided:

Category: Twins-White Sox
Batting Avg: .264-.398
Runs: 12-45
Hits: 37-66
Doubles: 4-13
Home Runs: 3-10
ERA: 10.03-3.00

I don't care what school of baseball thought you subscribe to; there is absolutely no way in to put a positive spin on any of those numbers.

I was one of the unfortunate 22,859 people in attendence at today's game. I was really looking forward to the game beforehand. It was Shannon Stewart bat giveaway day (I'm a sucker for promotions) and Saturday's win had me thinking that the Twins were poised to salvage a split in the series and head to Tampa alone in first place. Plus, it has been raining here for like 5 days nonstop and I was looking forward to catching some live indoor baseball (note: this is the ONLY circumstance in which the Dome is a positive).

I'm sure most of you caught at least some of the game (or watched the "highlights") and to make a long story short, it was the epitomy of an ugly loss. I knew we were in for a long day when Johan had some unfortunate circumstances (bloop hit, bunt single, outfield misplay) cost him 3 early runs. But when the Twins took a 6-3 lead in the 3rd, I thought the Twins had a good shot to pull out the "W". Then came "The Neverending Story" also known as the top of the 4th inning. Oh, the horror. That is something I would rather not relive. Needless to say, people started exiting the Dome by the 5th. Even yours truly commited this terrible sin and left after the 7th (with the score 17-6). Hopefully, the baseball gods will forgive me. After this past weekend, I'm sure most Twins fans are wondering when the wrath of the baseball gods will subside and we can get back to the good ol' days: last Wednesday.

Interesting note from Jimmy Souhan over at the Strib sports section: "Top pitching prospect Jesse Crain, who has been hitting 98 miles per hour on the radar gun, was the Twins' minor league player of the week after pitching three perfect innings at Rochester. He's 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA and nine saves."

Anyone think this weekend's pitching implosion may hasten the call-up of the game's top relief prospect?

Thursday, May 20, 2004

The Wrong Man for the Job

That sound of thunder in the distance last night wasn't another summer storm rolling through. It was the White Sox bats coming alive against Twins pitchers. It didn't matter that Magglio Ordonez wasn't in the lineup, the previously over-the-hill Big Hurt and Paul Konerko of the "I can't buy a hit or homer" variety more then made up for his absence. This could have been the night the White Sox finally sent the message that they deserve respect. That all their millions had not been wasted for a third year in a row and that their manager, though inexperienced, was the real deal. Too bad their amazing night came against a guy that wasn't even good enough for the Tigers, let alone the Twins, last year.

That's right: Seth Greisinger was so bad that those Tigers of the 119 loss ilk chose not to retain his services during the past off season. No matter: the Twins after 2 mediocre outings and one outstanding one eagerly declared them their fifth starter. Despite having a former (albeit inflated) 20-game winner in the minors most Twins fans quickly joined the bandwagon. Some even speculated on the possibility of Greisinger passing Kyle Lohse in the hierarchy of the rotation.

After all, why not? Here was a former high draft pick coming off of surgery who was still relatively young and seemingly finally putting it all together. What many of us failed to do was look more closely at the situation. Greisinger pitched 37.7 innings last year with a whopping 6.21 earned run average. This year he began the season in the minors and upon being called up was promptly pummeled in his first outing. People then pointed to his earned run average as a starter which was under 4. In those starts Greisinger has pitched more then 5 innings exactly once and that was his great outing. Perhaps his great outing was the aberration. Remember, even Rich Robertson once threw a shutout for the Twins. In all his other outings Greisinger far exceeded expectations and did what a fifth starter is supposed to do: he kept the team in the game long enough to hand it over to the bullpen. He was not a horse and he was far from great.

Eventually the Twins are going to need a real fifth starter this year. One who can eat innings when the rest of the starters are struggling and the bullpen is burnt out. Greisinger has never shown himself to be that man. That's why it would be a mistake to just hand Rick Helling over to another organization. It will happen though and the team will be kicking itself within a couple of weeks after suffering through several more outings like the one last night. Greisinger will return to form and so far during his major league career what we saw last night is it. The kid is not so young, does not have amazing stuff and has barely held his head above water this season and still the Twins insist on presenting him the keys to the car. This is a move that will come back to haunt them.

Notes - The injury bug continues to plague the Twins this year. While they have done an admirable job overcoming them to this point it might be time to call in reinforcements. The only upside to not doing so is that it shows a tremendous amount of disregard for the abilities of the White Sox in this weekend’s series. Then again, losing the series one game to three would be hard to stomach. Especially when the Twins have the quality of hitting they do at AAA. Justin Morneau has done everything possible to show he is ready for another chance and for once the team has room to get him regular at-bats. What he adds to this team is much needed power and hopefully a certainty that Jose Awfulman won't ever be called on again to bat clean up. The only reason the Twins might hold off is because when they make the call they want him to be able to stick. He is not the type of player they want to yo-yo back and forth between the bigs and Rochester, especially if he is doing well.

Mike Restovich would also be a good candidate for a call-up. He is finally living up to his hype and deserves a reward for all his hard work. 10 homeruns so far this year are hard to ignore and should Shannon Stewart go on the DL he would be a great option to play left for a couple of weeks.

There is a possibility that no one will go on the disabled list and that a pitcher will be sent down to make room on the roster. This leaves the Twins with a difficult decision. It basically is between Joe Roa, Terry Muholland and Grant Balfour. Some have already labeled Balfour a key to the Twins bullpen. He is out of options and has great stuff, not to mention that the time the organization has invested in him, making him the least likely to be sent out. Roa might be the easiest to keep but it's probably unlikely they will sneak him through waivers either. He has pitched too well this year and if the Twins let him go he will no doubt contribute to some other team. The best choice would be Greisinger but the Twins seem to feel he deserves several more starts in which to implode and prove that he lacks major league talent. It's amazing how some of the AAAA pitchers brought in during the off-season have really made the bullpen a strength and a place of depth so far this season.

Ron Gardenhire is terrified of losing a catcher by DHing Matt LeCroy. This has left the lineup little flexibility in the last couple of days. It would be terrible if a catcher were injured and the Twins lost the DH but when you weigh that with what a hot LeCroy bat adds to the lineup it would appear to be worth the risk. LeCroy in the lineup over Awfulman is definitely a bonus every game it happens. Heck, I'm not convinced Awfulman is that much better then the pitcher hitting anyhow. He belongs on the bench in a pitch hit role where his veteran presence means something. If that's what he was brought in for that is where they should use him.

Look for Carlos Silva to bounce back tonight. The team needs a big win and Silva just seems like the guy to give it to them. He has shown a resolve on the hill this year that is unlikely to go away anytime soon. As long as his sinker is working he will be tough on the Sox and keep the ball in the park. This would allow the Twins to stay in the game long enough for Jacque Jones to work his magic and make his first hit off of Mark Buehrle a game winning homerun!
John
johnbetzler@hotmail.com





Greisinger looks away as Frank Thomas rounds third during his HR trot.
His performance on Thursday wasn't quite what the Twins had in mind.



Wednesday, May 19, 2004

Hitless Wonders Strike Again…KG beats Kings

Only one word can describe a day like today. Wow. That’s all I can say. The thing is, had I looked at the calendar a week ago, I would have pegged this day, May 19, as a potentially crappy day. I had a final (albeit a rather easy one) and I have a killer psychology test looming over my head that I have studied little for thus far. But today, enough great things happened to not only overcome today’s pitfalls, but to transform this day, May 19, into one of the most exciting in Minnesota sports history.

We’ll start with first things first. Since this is a Twins blog, we’ll discuss the state of your Minnesota Twins. I don’t know how many of you caught today’s game on TV, but what a game it was! I still haven’t come down from cloud nine. First off, compare the Twins’ opening day lineup:

LF- Shannon Stewart
2B- Luis Rivas
1B- Doug Mientkiewicz
3B- Corey Koskie
CF- Torii Hunter
RF- Jacque Jones
DH- Matthew LeCroy
C- Joe Mauer
SS- Christian Guzman

With today’s lineup:

LF- Lew Ford
SS- Christian Guzman
RF- Jacque Jones
1B- Jose Offerman
CF- Torii Hunter
DH- Michael Ryan
3B- Michael Cuddyer
C- Henry Blanco
2B- Alex Prieto

That’s exactly THREE opening day starters- a lousy THREE!! Awfulman batting cleanup (again)!? Blanco and Prieto back-to-back? Not exactly a lineup that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. But somehow (as I stated the other day) the Twins simply find a way to win! Twins pitchers, most notably a Mr. Juan Rincon, made the victory all that more dramatic, but no matter. Today’s “hitless wonders” battled all day long at the plate, but it took until the ninth for the pot to boil over.

Down 5-2, singles to the outfield by Hunter and Cuddyer were followed by an INFIELD SINGLE (!) by Blanco (I know, I almost went into shock too). That set the stage for today’s hero, Matthew “Big Country” LeCroy. The only man left on the Twins’ bench (not including Jerry White or Wayne Hattaway) absolutely crushed a Terry Adams fastball over the centerfield fence for a grand slam! I was watching the game by myself but I couldn’t help jumping up and yelling for joy! My behavior earned me a couple of confused stares from passer-bys, but who cares! Joe Nathan came in and slammed the door, capping what was one of the most satisfying regular season wins in a long time. Bring on those ChiSox!

Unfortunately, it seems that the buzz from today’s spectacular Twins game will be overshadowed by the Wolves Game 7 win over the Kings. But I’m just as excited about the Woofies! Great win for them as well, and a very entertaining game to watch. KG finally played like an MVP should, and all I can say is that it's about frickin' time! I’ll bet there wasn’t a person in the state who wasn't holding their breath as Webber launched that three as time expired. But hey, “a win is a win” as they always say! We'll all take it!

Overall, it was a very emotionally draining day. But still a good day. I can still only think of one word to describe it all: Wow.


Big Country takes Adams deep for a game-winning GS



KG howls after the Wolves eek by the Kings in Game 7

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Giving Thanks

Today is my birthday and I was thinking about how thankful I am for the Twins success so far. Luckily, for me, a lot has gone right lately so I have been in an altogether good mood as a result. I have an extra bounce in my step and I get to talk trash about the White Sox. The Twins being in first place is one of my best birthday presents.

I am most thankful for the off-season trades the Twins made. Where would this team be without Carlos Silva and Joe Nathan? Silva probably can't keep it up as he got lit up for the first time in his past start. Still, he's got himself a nasty sinker that has yet to induce groundballs at the rate he is used to. With a solid defense behind him his performance should remain strong once hitters begin to put the ball on the ground. Nathan got off to a shaky start but has quickly taken to his role. Having a closer that doesn't give everyone a heart attack is a godsend. This guy is automatic and a pleasure to watch.

Christian Guzman appears to be back and that means only good things. As he continues to gain confidence there is no reason to assume he will falter anytime soon. This guy pressures defenses and sets up the Twins lineup at the top of the order. He can also be one of the most exiting players in the game to watch, though also one of the most frustrating.

Michael Cuddyer is finally getting regular at bats. We have been waiting for this kid for 5 years. All along the way we were told that he could hit and then he got to the majors and never really was given a chance to. In limited action he has been mediocre with flashes of power. Now, all Twins fans get the chance to see if he was worth the hype or if it is time to cut bait. So far he has produced in his role and I expect he will continue.

Joe Mauer is on his way back. This is a double bonus because that means we won't have to suffer through too many more Henry Blanco at-bats. No one knows for sure how fast Mauer is progressing but he is steadily improving. That means he should be back within a month at the latest. This is an upgrade both in the field and at bat.

I see Luis Rivas's average is steadily creeping upwards...

Forget No Name Steaks, the No Name Bullpen is quickly becoming the best deal around. Roa, Rincon, Fultz and Muholland all are giving the Twins quality innings at a discount price. These guys are keeping the team in games and are proving to be better then advertised. This is yet another key to the team's success and more proof that Terry Ryan is one of the best general managers in the game.

I'm thankful for a starting rotation that seems to be putting things together. Heck we don't even need Rick "Longball" Helling anymore. The rotation is no longer just keeping the team in games, it is starting to win some. This team was a fluke without its starters. Even Kyle Lohse pitched decent in his last outing giving the team a chance to win no matter who starts.

Jacque Jones ate his Wheaties and now he can hit lefties. This guy is straight-up scary for opposing pitchers. He is the best pure hitter on the team and capable of someday winning a batting title if he can keep it up against the southpaws. Take that Royals- what do you think of your 4 lefties in the rotation now?

I have thought Torii Hunter was overrated for years but right now he is going through one of his patented hot streaks that make everyone love the guy. Torii, it is really nice to have you back in center and providing the power this team needs from you.

Lew Ford is back to raising his batting average which bodes well for this website. We were getting worried that perhaps we had errored in so quickly jumping to proclaim him our official player. He continues to reward our faith as do you, our readers. We are thankful for your support always and that we have the good fortune of following a great baseball team. Here's hoping my birthday present is a series win up in Toronto tonight.

Peter Gammons is Ripping Off My Ideas!

While perusing through my daily Internet baseball site, I came across this article by Peter Gammons. I think it ties in perfectly to my post for today (see directly below). After you read mine (keep in mind that I'm no Peter Gammons- at least not yet) I encourage you to click on the following link and see what Gammons has to say on the subject of our Twins. Very solid piece: ESPN.com - Gammons: Budgetball.

How Do They Do It?

Monday’s 9-5 victory over the Blue Jays at Skydome really got me thinking about the Minnesota Twins franchise. Now, the game in itself doesn’t appear to have been that extraordinary. Radke pitched well but not spectacularly; J.C. did not pitch that well but was hurt by a couple of unfortunate defensive plays (Hunter’s near-catch on Cash’s double and Rivas’ poor relay to Guzie on Delgado’s grounder); and the bullpen blew a three-run lead.

But lately, I think that the rest of the country is finally figuring out what Twins fans have known since 2001: this is a franchise that has it figured out! Now I don’t mean to say that Terry Ryan can predict the future or anything, but things seem to work out for the Twins more often than not. I honestly believe that most people around the country thought that the 2002-03 Twins were a fluke: the team had gotten lucky when a bunch of talented players hit the big leagues at the same time, nicely complementing the pieces already in place. Many thought that once that little “bubble” was broken this past winter the team would spiral downward and join the rest of its small-market brethren at the bottom of the standings.

Obviously, this has not been the case. Monday’s game perfectly exemplifies the spirit of these Minnesota Twins. It doesn’t matter if things look like they are spinning out of control- someone will inevitably step up and right the ship. Monday that someone was Jacque Jones. Strangely enough, even though J.C. had blown that lead in the 7th there was no doubt in my mind that the Twins would win that game. Even when Nakamura looked so tough in the 8th my faith was not shaken. Even though the Twins were playing on the road, I did not falter. In my mind, it was just Jacque’s turn to step up. I’ll bet JJ will say the same thing.

What is it that separates the Twins from all those other teams that languish in futility? Is it the front office? Is it Terry Ryan? Is it Ron Gardenhire? Even TK perhaps? Or is it simply luck?

And yet another question: Why have the Royals been so unsuccessful in trying to emulate the follow-up success of the 2002 Twins (coming off their nice 2003 season)? I don’t think there is a simple answer to that question (although Rob Neyer tried recently), but it is an interesting topic to explore at another time. In the meantime, fellow Twins fans, we need to realize just how fortunate we are to have a franchise that defies conventional “logic” and just keeps on winning. Monday was just one more drop in the bucket.